基于信息扩散理论的江苏省雷电灾害风险评估  

Lightning disaster risk assessment in Jiangsu province based on information diffusion theory

作　　者：李霞[1,2] 宋喃喃 刘银萍 焦雪[4] 杨婷娅[4] 缪佩[1] LI Xia;SONG Nannan;LIU Yinping;JIAO Xue;YANG Tingya;MIU Pei(Key Laboratory for Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation of China Meteorological Administration,and Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD),Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044;State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081;Tianjin Meteorological Disaster Defense Technology Centre,Tianjin 300074;Jiangsu Provincial Meteorological Bureau,Nanjing 210009)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/中国气象局气溶胶与云降水重点开放实验室,南京210044 [2]中国气象科学院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京100081 [3]天津市气象灾害防御技术中心,天津300074 [4]江苏省气象局,南京210009

出　　处：《暴雨灾害》2021年第5期564-568,共5页Torrential Rain and Disasters

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41975003);灾害天气国家重点实验室项目(2020LASW-B08);国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC1501502)。

摘　　要：雷电灾害已日益成为影响人类经济社会发展的严重灾害之一。基于信息扩散理论建立雷电灾害风险评估模型,对江苏省2008—2019年雷电灾害事故进行分析计算。结果表明:江苏省雷电灾害事故多集中于320次·a-1内,约1.9 a一遇,而发生880次·a-1以上的概率较小,约38.2 a一次;人身伤亡风险主要集中在12人·a-1内,约1.8 a一遇,大于30人·a-1的伤亡次数则约14.1 a发生一次;经济损失风险值为650万元·a-1的累积发生概率为58.62%,而2250万元·a-1的发生概率极低,仅为1.84%。定量化的计算分析数据可使人们对雷电灾害事故有更深入的了解,并为相关政府部门制定防灾减灾决策提供一定的科学依据。Lightning disaster has been one of the serious disasters affecting the development of economy and society.Based on information diffusion theory,the model of lightning disaster risk assessment is established.And the lightning disasters from 2008 to 2019 in Jiangsu province are analysed by this model.The results show that lightning disasters have been mainly concentrated in 320 times per year,about once every 1.9 years.The probability of more than 880 times per year is low,about once every 38.2 years in Jiangsu province.The risk of life injury and death has been mainly concentrated in 12 people per year,about once every 1.8 years.The number of casualties for more than 30 people per year is about once every 14.1 years.Then the cumulative probability of economic loss with the risk value of 6.50 million yuan per year is 58.62%,but the probability of 22.50 million yuan per year is very low,only 1.84%.Through quantitative calculation and analysis,a deeper understanding of lightning disasters is achieved and the scientific basis for the government departments to make disaster prevention and mitigation decisions is provided.

关 键 词：信息扩散理论 雷电灾害 风险评估 发生概率 

分 类 号：P427[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]