基于门槛模型的旅游发展对城乡收入差距的影响效应研究——以长三角地区41个市为例  

A Threshold Model Based Survey of the Impacts of Tourism Development on the Urban-Rural Income Gaps--Taking 41 Cities in the Yangtze River Delta as a Case in Point

作　　者：朱道才[1,2] 王浩 ZHU Daocai;WANG Hao(School of Economics, Anhui University of Finance and Economics, Bengbu, Anhui, 233030;School of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu, Anhui, 241000)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学经济学院,安徽蚌埠233030 [2]安徽师范大学地理与旅游学院,安徽芜湖241000

出　　处：《南京理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2021年第5期62-69,共8页Journal of Nanjing University of Science and Technology：Social Sciences

基　　金：安徽省哲学社会科学规划重大项目“新时代安徽文化旅游生态融合发展研究”(AHSKZD2019D03);安徽财经大学研究生科研创新基金项目“旅游发展对经济增长影响的门槛效应——基于中国省域面板数据的研究”(ACYC2019165)。

摘　　要：本文基于2010—2019年长三角地区41个市的面板数据,在空间面板滞后模型基础上,利用门槛回归模型,分别以经济发展水平、旅游发展水平为门槛变量,实证检验了旅游产业发展与城乡收入差距之间的非线性作用关系。得到如下研究结论:(1)在考虑空间相关性的情况下,长三角地区旅游发展对城乡收入差距缩小具有明显的促进作用。(2)长三角地区旅游产业的城乡收入差距影响效应存在基于经济发展水平和旅游发展水平的双重门槛效应,前者表现为先增大后减小的“铃型”变动格局,后者表现为先减小后增大再减小的“反N型”变动态势。因此,需要正确认识地区旅游产业发展与城乡收入差距之间的作用关系,着力提升地区经济发展质量,深入改善地区旅游发展格局,充分释放旅游发展的惠民潜力,促进城乡融合发展。Based on the 2010-2019 panel data of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta and on the spatial panel lag model,this paper adopts the threshold regression model.It takes the economic development and tourism development as threshold variables,and empirically tests the non-linear relationship between the tourism industry development and urban-rural income gap.Research conclusions are drawn as follows:(1)On account of the spatial correlation,the tourism development in the Yangtze River Delta has a significant promoting role in bridging the urban-rural income gap.(2)The urban-rural income gap has a dual threshold effect in the Yangtze River Delta tourism in terms of both the economic development level and the tourism development.The former manifests itself as a“bell-shaped”change pattern that increases first and then decreases,while the latter shows an“inversed N-type”dynamic potential,that first decreases,then increases and decreases again.Therefore,it is necessary to correctly understand the relationship between the regional tourism industry development and the urban-rural income gap.The ultimate goal is to improve the regional economic development quality,deeply improve the regional tourism development pattern,fully release the tourism development potential beneficial to people,and promote the integrated urban-rural development.

关 键 词：旅游产业发展 城乡收入差距 门槛模型 长三角地区 

分 类 号：F062.5[经济管理—政治经济学]