概率在航空运营中的应用探析  

Analysis on the Application of Probability in Aviation Operations

作　　者：岳谭谭[1] YUE Tan-tan(Operation Risk Control Center,Shandong Airlines Co.,Ltd.,Jinan 250107,China)

机构地区：[1]山东航空股份有限公司运行风险控制中心,济南250107

出　　处：《西安航空学院学报》2021年第3期24-29,共6页Journal of Xi’an Aeronautical Institute

摘　　要：安全是航空运营研究和管理的重要问题,航空运营安全涉及问题非常广泛,随机性问题就是其中主要问题之一。基于概率分析对航空运营涉及的随机性问题进行初步探索。连续型随机变量分析表明:当随机变量的影响因素不独立时,航空运营安全大小概率不同的事件需同等重视;当随机变量的影响因素独立时,则可以重大轻小。离散型随机变量分析表明:从数据统计的角度看,随着航空运营累计安全飞行时数的增加,后续航班运营安全管控难度增大;从单日的航空运行安全管控来看,随着航空运营累计安全飞行时数的增加,航空运营安全概率增大。Aviation operation safety involves a wide range of problems,and randomness is one of the main problems.Based on probability analysis,this paper makes a preliminary exploration of the randomness issues involved in aviation operations.The analysis of continuous random variables shows that when the influencing factors of random variables are not independent,events with different probabilities of aviation operation safety need to be paid equal attention;when the influencing factors of random variables are independent,they can be classified into significant and light ones.Moreover,the analysis of discrete random variables shows that:from the perspective of data statistics,as the cumulative number of safe flight hours in aviation operation increases,subsequent flight operation safety control becomes more difficult;and from the perspective of single-day aviation operation safety control,the probability of aviation operation safety increases.

关 键 词：航空运营 概率 安全 

分 类 号：V215.5[航空宇航科学与技术—航空宇航推进理论与工程]