台湾地区政党轮替内生规律探析  

Research on the Inner Occurrence Law of Party Alternation in Taiwan

作　　者：祝捷[1] 陈文菊 Zhu Jie;Chen Wenju

机构地区：[1]武汉大学法学院 [2]武汉大学两岸及港澳法制研究中心

出　　处：《台湾研究》2021年第4期16-24,共9页Taiwan Studies

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“采取反分裂国家必要措施的相关法律问题研究”(项目批准号:17JZD030)阶段性成果。

摘　　要：台湾地区政治社会各因素长期相互作用是导致台湾地区政党轮替的重要因素。回望检视台湾地区1996年以来历次领导人选举资料及选举前的政治生态环境,"地方包围中央"、执政党"党权解构"、两岸关系"逆转发展"、民众认同下降等政治现象在每次选举前均不同程度地复现,成为影响台湾地区政党轮替发生的四大内生性规律要素。但从经验分析与逻辑推导的角度看,上述任何一条规律要素的单独出现或部分聚合发生都不能完全诠释政党轮替发生的内在原因,只有当以上四条规律同时具备,形成一个完整的要素群时,政党轮替的内生规律才得以发生作用。可以说,上述四大规律要素的齐备是台湾地区政党轮替发生的内生条件。The long-term interaction of various political and social factors in Taiwan is an important factor leading to the party alternation in Taiwan.Looking back and reviewing the data of the previous“president”elections in Taiwan since 1996 and the political environment before the election,political phenomena such as“local siege of the central government”,“party power deconstruction”of the ruling party,“reversal development”of cross-Strait relations,and decline in public acceptance are recurring before each election,becoming the four endogenous and regular elements that affect the occurrence of party alternation in Taiwan.However,from the perspective of empirical analysis and logical derivation,the individual appearance or partial aggregation of the above elements cannot fully interpret the internal reasons for the occurrence of party alternation.Only when the above four laws are present at the same time to form a complete element group,the inner law of party alternation can be achieved.Based on this,it can be said that the completeness of the four regular elements mentioned above is an endogenous condition for the occurrence of party alternation in Taiwan.

关 键 词：台湾 政党轮替 “地方包围中央” “党权解构” 两岸关系 

分 类 号：D675.8[政治法律—政治学]