东北振兴政策效果的再评价——基于灯光数据和PSM-DID模型的分析  

The Reevaluation of the Effect of Northeast China Revitalization Policy:An Analysis Based on Light Data and PSM-DID

作　　者：杨东亮[1] 王皓然 YANG Dong-liang;WANG Hao-ran(Northeast Asia Research Institute of Jilin University,Changchun 130000,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学东北亚研究院,长春130000

出　　处：《商业研究》2021年第5期35-44,共10页Commercial Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“粤港澳大湾区人口集聚及其经济增长效应研究”,项目编号:18BRK024。

摘　　要：伴随着东北经济增长率多次全国垫底现象的出现,有关东北振兴政策是否有效的问题得到广泛关注。本文以2000-2018年城市数据为样本,利用夜间灯光数值衡量地区经济发展状况,采用双重差分倾向得分匹配方法(PSM-DID)对东北振兴政策实施效果进行评价。研究发现,东北振兴政策整体上并未对东北经济的长期发展起到积极的促进作用,未实现对东北体制机制的改善和产业结构的调整,特别是2013年以前的东北振兴政策对东北经济发展产生负向影响;但新一轮东北振兴政策是有效的,其对东北经济的积极作用正在逐步释放,政策效果在2017年后愈加明显。结论表明,长效的政策体系,加大对外开放和科技创新,调整产业结构并完善基础设施建设和社会保障体系,将有助于振兴政策效果的发挥。With the economic growth rate of Northeast China falling at the bottom of the country for many times,the issue of whether the Northeast China revitalization policy is effective has been widely concerned.Taking the urban data from 2000 to 2018 as the sample,this paper uses the night light value to measure the regional economic development,and uses the double differential propensity score matching method(PSM-DID)to evaluate the implementation effect of the Northeast Revitalization policy.The study found that the Northeast Revitalization policy as a whole did not play a positive role in promoting the long-term development of Northeast economy,and did not realize the improvement of Northeast system and mechanism and the adjustment of industrial structure,in particular,the Northeast Revitalization policy before 2013 had a negative impact on northeast economic development;however,the new round of Northeast Revitalization policy is effective,its positive effect on the Northeast economy is gradually released,and the policy effect is becoming more and more obvious after 2017.The conclusion shows that a long-term policy system,increasing opening to the outside world and scientific and technological innovation,adjusting industrial structure and improving infrastructure construction and social security system will help to revitalize the effect of the policy.

关 键 词：东北振兴 灯光数据 双重差分法 倾向得分匹配法 政策评价 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]