Prediction model of moisture content of dead fine fuel in forest plantations on Maoer Mountain,Northeast China  

作　　者：Maombi Mbusa Masinda Fei Li Qi Liu Long Sun Tongxin Hu 

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Sustainable Forest Ecosystem Management-Ministry of Education,College of Forestry,Northeast Forestry University,26 Hexing Road,Harbin 150040,People’s Republic of China [2]Faculty of Sciences,UniversitéOffi cielle de Ruwenzori,PO Box 560,Butembo,North Kivu,Democratic Republic of Congo

出　　处：《Journal of Forestry Research》2021年第5期2023-2035,共13页林业研究（英文版）

基　　金：the National Key Research and Development Program of China;Key Projects for Strategic International Innovative Cooperation in Science and Technology(2018YFE0207800);Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(2572019BA03);partly by the China Scholarship Council(CSC No.2016DFH417)。

摘　　要：Preventing and suppressing forest fires is one of the main tasks of forestry agencies to reduce resource loss and requires a thorough understanding of the importance of factors affecting their occurrence.This study was carried out in forest plantations on Maoer Mountain in order to develop models for predicting the moisture content of dead fine fuel using meteorological and soil variables.Models by Nelson(Can J For Res 14:597-600,1984)and Van Wagner and Pickett(Can For Service 33,1985)describing the equilibrium moisture content as a function of relative humidity and temperature were evaluated.A random forest and generalized additive models were built to select the most important meteorological variables affecting fuel moisture content.Nelson’s(Can J For Res 14:597-600,1984)model was accurate for Pinus koraiensis,Pinus sylvestris,Larix gmelinii and mixed Larix gmelinii—Ulmus propinqua fuels.The random forest model showed that temperature and relative humidity were the most important factors affecting fuel moisture content.The generalized additive regression model showed that temperature,relative humidity and rain were the main drivers affecting fuel moisture content.In addition to the combined effects of temperature,rainfall and relative humidity,solar radiation or wind speed were also significant on some sites.In P.koraiensis and P.sylvestris plantations,where soil parameters were measured,rain,soil moisture and temperature were the main factors of fuel moisture content.The accuracies of the random forest model and generalized additive model were similar,however,the random forest model was more accurate but underestimated the effect of rain on fuel moisture.

关 键 词：Forest plantations Fine fuel moisture content Weather factors Prediction models 

分 类 号：S762[农业科学—森林保护学]