基于实物期权法的林业投资项目价值评估  

Forestry Investment Project Evaluation Based on the Real Options Method

作　　者：王鹏[1] 鲁法典[1] WANG Peng;LU Fa-dian(Shandong Agricultural University,Taian 271018,Shangdong,China)

机构地区：[1]山东农业大学,山东泰安271018

出　　处：《西北林学院学报》2021年第5期269-274,共6页Journal of Northwest Forestry University

基　　金：“十三五”国家重点研发计划(2017YFD0600906)。

摘　　要：当前林业投资项目不再局限于单纯的木材收益,开始将碳汇收益也纳入到项目价值中。而木材和碳汇的价格波动在增加了项目不确定性的同时,对项目价值也产生了一定影响。传统价值评估方法只能评估出项目的静态价值,对于不确定性带来的动态价值无法准确反映。因此,本研究以高峰林场裸地造林项目为例,根据价格波动规律对木材与碳汇的未来价格分别提出了合理假设,并利用Black-Scholes期权定价模型对项目价值进行了评估。通过对评估结果的分析,论证了实物期权法应用于林业投资项目价值评估的可行性及必要性,促进了实物期权法在林业中的进一步发展。The current forestry investment projects are no longer limited to pure timber income, and the carbon sink incomes begin to incorporate into the project value.While fluctuations in the prices of wood and carbon sinks have increased the uncertainty of the project, they also have a certain impact on the value of the project.Traditional value evaluation methods can only evaluate the static value of the project, and cannot accurately reflect the dynamic value brought about by uncertainty.This study took the bare-land afforestation project of Gaofeng Forest Farm as an example, according to the law of price fluctuations, reasonable assumptions were made on the future prices of wood and carbon sinks, and the value of the project was evaluated by using the Black-Scholes option pricing model.Through the analysis of the evaluation results, it demonstrated the feasibility and necessity of the real option method in the value evaluation of forestry investment projects to promote the further development of the real option method in forestry.

关 键 词：碳储量 实物期权 价格 不确定性 BLACK-SCHOLES期权定价模型 

分 类 号：S757.9[农业科学—森林经理学]