疫情冲击下农民工失业状况及影响因素研究  

Study on the Unemployment Status of Migrant Workers and Its Influencing Factors Under the Impact of Epidemic Situation

作　　者：杨胜利[1] 邵盼盼 YANG Sheng-li;SHAO Pan-pan(College of Economics of Hebei University,Baoding Hebei 071002,China)

机构地区：[1]河北大学经济学院,河北保定071000

出　　处：《西北人口》2021年第5期42-54,共13页Northwest Population Journal

基　　金：河北省科技厅河北省创新能力提升计划项目软科学研究专项“河北省科技人才创新创业环境评价与优化路径研究”(编号:20557613D)。

摘　　要：新冠肺炎疫情对我国的经济运行和就业市场产生了巨大的冲击。分析疫情下的农民工失业状况及影响因素对稳定就业、提升农民工就业质量具有重要的意义。通过对12省份农民工失业状况进行调查,采用二元Logit模型,分析了疫情因素对农民工失业的影响,并通过Probit模型、替换自变量法以及分样本回归对实证结果进行了稳健性检验。研究发现:(1)疫情冲击下农民工的失业率较2018年提高了1.48%;(2)疫情的传播性和破坏性对农民工失业均有显著的正向影响;(3)疫情对农民工失业的影响存在群体差异。人力资本、流动特征、社会保障能够有效抑制失业的发生,并且这种抑制效应,随着疫情严重程度的上升而增大。基于上述结果分析,从构建就业保障网、公共服务均等化以及提升农民工人力资本水平的维度提出了政策建议。The novel coronavirus pneumonia has a huge impact on China’s economic operation and employment market,and has a great impact on the employment of migrant workers.Analysis of the impact of the epidemic on migrant workers’unemployment plays an important role in stabilizing employment and improving the quality of migrant workers'employment.Based on this,using the questionnaire of unemployment status of floating population and binary logit model,this paper analyzes the impact of epidemic factors on the unemployment of migrant workers,and tests the robustness of the empirical analysis results by probit model,substitution independent variable method and sub sample regression.The conclusions are as follows:(1)Compared with 2018,the unemployment rate of migrant workers under the impact of the epidemic has increased by 1.48%;(2)The epidemic has a significant positive impact on the unemployment of migrant workers;(3)The impact of the epidemic on the unemployment of migrant workers varies among groups.Human capital,mobility characteristics,and social security can effectively suppress the occurrence of unemployment,and this suppression effect increases with the severity of the epidemic.Based on the above analysis of the results,policy recommendations are put forward from the dimensions of constructing an employment security network,equalizing public services,and improving the level of migrant workers’human capital.

关 键 词：新冠肺炎 农民工 失业 个人禀赋 

分 类 号：F323.6[经济管理—产业经济]