基于GIS的黄河北干流岸线土地利用变化分析  

Analysis of Land Use Change Along the Shoreline of the North Main Stream of the Yellow River Based on GIS Technology

作　　者：梁之豪 时芳欣 陈融旭[2] 穆磊 LIANG Zhihao;SHI Fangxin;CHEN Rongxu;MU Lei(Henan Institute of Geo-Environment Exploration,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Bureau of Water and Drought Disaster Prevention,YRCC,Zhengzhou 450003,China)

机构地区：[1]河南省地质环境勘查院,河南郑州450003 [2]黄河水利委员会黄河水利科学研究院,河南郑州450003 [3]黄河水利委员会水旱灾害防御局,河南郑州450003

出　　处：《人民黄河》2021年第10期123-127,共5页Yellow River

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0407403);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(HKY-JBYW-2018-06,HKY-JBYW-2019-10);国家自然科学基金青年基金资助项目(51809103)。

摘　　要：河岸带是水陆交错带,资源十分宝贵,其质量关系到陆地及河流两者的生态状况,黄河流域岸线资源更为宝贵,为摸清其土地利用时空变化规律,以黄河北干流岸线为研究区域,采用GIS手段分析了黄河大北干流岸线利用需求较为迫切的河曲-准格尔旗(河准段)与府谷-保德(府保段)两段河道和小北干流岸线土地利用时空变化情况,然后结合土地利用变化转移矩阵,利用马尔柯夫模型分别对其土地利用结构进行预测。分析可知,北干流岸线多年间土地利用在耕地、水域和建筑用地之间转化相对剧烈,其中大部分区域耕地、建筑用地呈增长态势,水域呈减少态势。原因可能是随着北干流岸线区域经济发展,工业化、城镇化进程加快,建筑用地、耕地需求增加。利用马尔柯夫模型对北干流岸线土地利用结构的预测结果表明,随着经济社会的持续发展,沿河人民拓宽生存空间的需求会持续增长,北干流岸线将逐渐形成以耕地、建筑用地和水域为主的布局形式。Riparian zone is a waterway crisscross zone,and its resources are very precious.Its quality is related to the ecological conditions of land and rivers.The shoreline resources of the Yellow River Basin are more precious.In order to find out the temporal and spatial changes of land use,this paper takes the shoreline of the north main stream of the Yellow River as the research area,and uses GIS to analyze the temporal and spatial changes of land use of the shoreline of the great north main stream and the small north main stream of the Yellow River Basin,and then combines the transfer matrix of land use change and Markov model to predict the land quantitative structure.The analysis shows that the land use in the north main stream coastline has changed dramatically between cultivated land,water area and construction land for many years,and the cultivated land and construction land in most areas are increasing,while the water area is decreasing.This may be because with the economic development of the coastal area along the north main stream,the process of industrialization and urbanization is speeding up,and the demand for construction land and cultivated land is increasing.Using Markov model to predict the quantitative structure of land use along the north main stream coastline,it shows that with the sustainable development of economy and society,the demand of people along the river to broaden living space will continue to grow,and the coastline of the north main stream will gradually form a layout of mainly cultivated land,construction land and water area.

关 键 词：北干流岸线 土地利用变化 GIS 转移矩阵 马尔柯夫预测 

分 类 号：TV212.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源] TV882.1