“时”与“势”:如何破解中美“修昔底德陷阱”  

"Time"and"Trend":How to Deal with the"Thucydides Trap"Between China and the United States

作　　者：李义虎[1] Li Yihu

机构地区：[1]北京大学国际关系学院

出　　处：《学术前沿》2021年第15期72-78,共7页Frontiers

摘　　要："修昔底德陷阱"问题是世界百年变局中的一个重大课题,如何破解这个难题是把握国际关系中"时"与"势"变化的关键。中国主张构建新型国际关系和人类命运共同体,强调中美双方不要有战略误判,要主动摆脱"修昔底德陷阱"。美国则将中国定位为"最严峻的战略竞争对手",认为必须通过极限施压或"高强度竞争"对中国加以遏制。在复合型国际格局(结构)中,大国间具有相互依存、合作与冲突并存等特征,既有矛盾复杂交织且不失对抗的一面,也存在着消解矛盾,乃至避免冲突与战争的结构性因素。中国应该充分利用复合型结构形成复合型战略,寻找破解"陷阱"的战略机会和策略运用之道,从而成功塑造有利于中国和平发展与崛起的"时"与"势"。The issue of "Thucydides trap" is a major topic surrounding the great changes unseen in the world in a century.Resolving this issue is the key to grasp the changes of the "time" and "trend" in international relations.China advocates building a new type of international relations and a community with a shared future for mankind,and emphasizes that China and the United States should refrain from making strategic misjudgments and take the initiative in getting rid of the "Thucydides trap".The United States positioned China as "the most serious strategic competitor" and believed that China must be contained through extreme pressure or "high-intensity competition".In the compound international pattern (structure),the great-power relations are characterized by interdependence and coexisted cooperation and conflicts,involve complex and intertwined contradictions and confrontation,and also contain structural factors that help to eliminate contradictions and even avoid conflict and war.China should make full use of the compound structure to form a compound strategy,look for strategic opportunities and ways to avoid the "trap",so as to successfully shape the "time" and "trend" conducive to China’s peaceful development and rise.

关 键 词：百年变局 中美关系 修昔底德陷阱 复合型国际格局 

分 类 号：D822.3[政治法律—政治学]