三峡后续工作航运规划实施评估  

Implementation effect evaluation on subsequent navigation plan for Three Gorges Project

作　　者：许鹏[1,2] 陈淑楣 何兴昌 郭涛 刘康[1] XU Peng;CHEN Shumei;HE Xingchang;GUO Tao;LIU Kang(School of Navigation,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,China;Shipping Development Research Center of Yangtze River,Wuhan 430014,China;Changjiang River Administration of Navigational Affairs,Wuhan 430014,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学航运学院,湖北武汉430063 [2]长江航运发展研究中心,湖北武汉430014 [3]长江航务管理局,湖北武汉430014

出　　处：《人民长江》2021年第9期6-10,共5页Yangtze River

摘　　要：为全面掌握三峡后续工作航运规划实施进展情况,深入了解规划实施的成效和问题,从坚持目标与问题导向相结合、注重过程与效果评估相结合的角度出发,构建了航运规划实施评估框架,并运用目标一致性理论、前后对比分析、因果分析等方法,对截至2019年12月底的航运规划实施情况进行了系统评估。结果表明:虽基于三峡水库蓄水后库区、中游航运发展的新需求和新变化,三峡后续工作航运规划在实施过程中对部分规划任务进行了优化和调整,但优化和调整均符合三峡后续工作规划总体思想,规划项目实施和资金管理均较好,规划基本完成了阶段性任务,整体实施成效显著;规划实施中也暴露出实施进度偏缓、部分规划目标任务不适应等一些不容忽视的问题,还需在后续工作中不断加以改进完善。In order to comprehensively grasp the implementation progress of the subsequent navigation plan for TGP,and deeply understand the effectiveness and problems in implementing the plan,from the perspective of adhering to the combination of goal and problem orientation,focusing on the combination of process and effect evaluation,this paper constructed an evaluation framework for the implementation effect evaluation of the navigation plan.Using the goal consistency theory,before and after comparison analysis,causal analysis and other methods,we systematically evaluate the implementation effect until the end of December 2019.The results showed that although some plan tasks were optimized and adjusted in view of the new needs and changes of the navigation development in the reservoir area and the middle reaches of Changjiang River after the impoundment of the Three Gorges Reservoir,these optimization and adjustment were in line with the overall idea of the subsequent plan for TGP.The implementation of the planning project and the management of funds were ideal.The planning basically completed the phased tasks and the overall implementation effect was remarkable.However,in the process of plan implementation,there were also some problems that can not be ignored,such as the slow progress of implementation and the inadaptability of some planning objectives and tasks,which need to be improved and perfected in the follow-up work.

关 键 词：三峡后续工作 航运规划 评估框架 目标一致性理论 前后对比分析 实施评估 

分 类 号：D632.4[政治法律—政治学]