我国啤酒产量的计量模型研究  

Research on the Econometric Model of Beer production in China

作　　者：曹清 刘伟[1] Cao Qing;Liu Wei(Jincheng College of Sichuan University,Chengdu 611731)

机构地区：[1]四川大学锦城学院,成都611731

出　　处：《北方经贸》2021年第9期43-48,共6页Northern Economy and Trade

摘　　要：啤酒自19世纪传入我国后,其产量在我国逐年提升。自2013年我国啤酒产量达到5061.6万千升的定点之后,啤酒的消费需求量达到顶点,啤酒产量开始见顶回落。影响啤酒产量的因素多种多样,而主要影响我国啤酒产量的因素是城镇居民的人均可支配收入、餐饮业营业收入额、小麦产量、啤酒新增生产能力等。本文运用1998-2018年的统计数据,通过Eviews7.2软件建立啤酒产量影响因素的计量模型,来分析这些因素对我国啤酒产量的影响并进行预测,进一步分析这些因素对我国啤酒产量的影响程度并提出相关分析建议。Since beer was introduced into China in the 19th century,its output has been increasing year by year with the continuous development of industrialization in China.Since 2013,when China's beer production reached the peak of 5061.6 million kl,the consumption demand of beer in China reached the peak,and the beer production began to peak and decline.There are various factors affecting beer production,but the main factors affecting beer production in China are per capita disposable income of urban residents,operating income of catering industry,wheat yield,beer production capacity,etc.In this paper,statistical data from 1998 to 2018 were used to establish the econometric model of influencing factors of beer yield through Eviews7.2 software to analyze and predict the influence of these factors on beer yield in China,further analyze the degree of influence of these factors on beer yield in China and put forward relevant analysis Suggestions.

关 键 词：啤酒产量 城镇居民可支配收入计量模型 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]