基于NetLogo的地震救援多主体协同仿真研究  

Multi-agents Collaborative Simulation Study of Earth-quake Rescue Based on NetLogo

作　　者：喇蕊芳 张在旭[1,2] 张旭 白鹏飞 LA Ruifang;ZHANG Zaixu;ZHANG Xu;BAI Pengfei(School of Economics and Management,China University of Petroleum,Qingdao 266580,China;School of Chinese Law and Economics Management,Shengli College of China University of Petroleum,Dongying 257061,China;Collaborative Innovation Center for Transport Studies,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,China;School of Management and Engineering,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东)经济管理学院,山东青岛266580 [2]山东石油化工学院文法与经济管理学院,山东东营257061 [3]大连海事大学综合交通运输协同创新中心,辽宁大连116026 [4]首都经济贸易大学管理工程学院,北京100070

出　　处：《华北地震科学》2021年第4期19-27,共9页North China Earthquake Sciences

基　　金：《大中城市地震灾害情景构建》重点专项“大中城市地震救援情景分析构建与应急准备能力评估研究”(2016QJGJ12);北京市教委社科计划一般项目(SM201910038002);国家社科基金项目(17GL176)。

摘　　要：地震救援是多主体交互的系统活动,救援参与主体差异化程度高,呈现出高度的综合性、复杂性、动态性、不确定性。为探寻提升地震救援协同绩效的有效策略,在“8.8九寨沟地震”案例分析的基础上,构建了包含主导型、主力型、辅助型救援主体和新闻媒体4类力量的地震救援参与主体间的协同框架,设计出“基于救援主体”及“基于被救者”的两套信息交互规则和仿真模型;在此基础上,采用ABM从微观角度对地震救援活动进行NetLogo仿真,通过变量调控和对比分析受灾程度、政府管理能力、主体救援能力与存活率之间的关系,以期为地震救援过程中多主体协同提供理论指导与决策支持。Earthquake rescue is a systematic activity of multi-subject interaction;the rescue participants have a high degree of differentiation,showing a high degree of comprehensiveness,complexity,dynamics and uncertainty.In order to explore an effective strategy to improve the collaborative performance of earthquake rescue,based on the case analysis of the"8.8 Jiuzhaigou earthquake",a collaborative framework of earthquake rescue participants was constructed,which included four kinds of forces:dominant,main,auxiliary rescue agents and news media.Two sets of information interaction rules and simulation models were de-signed,"based on the rescue agent"and"based on the rescued person";on this basis,using ABM(Agent-based model),NetLogo simulation of earthquake relief activities is carried out from a micro perspective,In order to provide theoretical guidance and decision support for multi-agent cooperation in earthquake rescue process,the relationship among disaster degree,government management ability,agent rescue ability and survival rate was analyzed through variable regulation and comparison.

关 键 词：地震救援 参与主体 协同关系 多AGENT模型 NETLOGO 

分 类 号：P315.95[天文地球—地震学]