乌克兰危机后中东欧安全局势与中东欧国家的战略选择  

The Security Situation and Strategic Choices of Central and Eastern European Countries after the Ukraine Crisis

作　　者：鞠豪[1,2] Ju Hao

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所 [2]黑龙江大学乌克兰研究中心

出　　处：《俄罗斯学刊》2021年第5期45-63,共19页Academic Journal of Russian Studies

基　　金：中国社会科学院青年科研项目“欧洲一体化进程与欧洲观念的变迁”阶段性成果。

摘　　要：安全问题是中东欧地区的重要议题。综合分析地区各国实力现状、域内外环境与历史遗产,后冷战时代的中东欧地区安全主要呈现如下特征:第一,从安全层面来说,中东欧国家皆为中小国家,对地区安全的威胁相对有限。第二,外部因素是影响中东欧地区安全的主要因素。第三,大国长期控制的历史对中东欧国家的安全认知与战略选择具有重要影响。在外部环境相对友好的情况下,中东欧地区可以维持基本的安全与稳定。但随着乌克兰危机的爆发,中东欧安全局势发生了重要的变化。俄罗斯、美国以及北约不断增强在中东欧及周边地区的军事存在,导致中东欧国家面临的安全风险大为上升,地区安全格局也呈现出与乌克兰危机之前截然不同的态势。面对重大的外部威胁,中东欧国家需要做出回应。但因为地理位置与历史遗产等方面的差异,中东欧国家对来自外部的安全威胁有着不同的解读,也因此选择了多样化的安全战略。Regional security is an important issue in Central and Eastern Europe.Based on a comprehensive analysis of military power,internal and external environments,and historical heritage,the security of Central and Eastern Europe in the post-Cold War era mainly has the following characteristics:First,from the perspective of security,Central and Eastern European countries are all small and medium-sized countries,which only pose limited threat to regional security.Second,external factors are the main factors that affect the security in Central and Eastern Europe.Third,the long history of control by major powers has an important influence on the security perceptions and strategic choices of Central and Eastern European countries.Facing a relatively friendly external environment,Central and Eastern Europe can maintain basic security and stability.However,with the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis,the security situation in Central and Eastern Europe has undergone important changes.Russia,the US,and NATO have all strengthened their military presence in Central and Eastern Europe and surrounding areas,leading to the increase of security risks.Facing similar external threats,Central and Eastern European countries have different perception and thus choose diversified security strategies due to their differences in geographic location and historical heritage.

关 键 词：中东欧 地区安全 外部因素 历史遗产 乌克兰危机 

分 类 号：D83[政治法律—政治学] D875.10[政治法律—外交学]