基于概率语言术语集的服务外包风险评估方法  

Risk Assessment Approach for Service Outsourcing Based on Probabilistic Linguistic Term Set

作　　者：张永政[1] 叶春明[1] 耿秀丽[1] ZHANG Yong-zheng;YE Chun-ming;GENG Xiu-li(Business School, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai 200093, China)

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院,上海200093

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2021年第9期203-209,共7页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71840003);上海市一流学科资助项目(S1201YLXK);上海市高原学科资助项目(GYXK1201);上海理工大学科技发展资助项目(2018KJFZ043)。

摘　　要：考虑服务外包风险评估的不确定性,采用概率语言术语集获取FMEA方法所需的专家评价信息,通过给语言集赋予不同的概率以表达偏好的程度。针对传统FMEA方法没有考虑风险间的相互影响关系,风险严重度评估不够准确的问题,采用广义Choquet积分分析风险间的相互影响关系,得到修正后的风险严重度。考虑严重度、发生度和难检度直接相乘准确性低的问题,采用概率语言VIKOR方法对风险的三个因子进行综合评估。最后以公共体育场馆服务外包风险评估为例,验证了所提方法的有效性。Taking into account the uncertainty of service outsourcing risk assessment,probabilistic linguistic term set is used to obtain the expert evaluation information required by the FMEA method,and the linguistic set is given different degrees of preference by assigning corresponding probabilities.For the traditional FMEA method,the mutual influence relationships among risks are not considered and the risk severity assessment is insufficient accuracy.The generalized Choquet integral is used to analyse the net influence degrees of risks,then the corrected risk severity is obtained.Considering the inaccuracy of the direct multiplication of severity,occurrence and detection,the probabilistic linguistic VIKOR method is used to comprehensively evaluate the three factors of risk.Finally,a case study of risk assessment for the service outsourcing of public sport stadium is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

关 键 词：风险评估 FMEA 广义Choquet积分 概率语言术语集 VIKOR 

分 类 号：TH122[机械工程—机械设计及理论] N94[自然科学总论—系统科学]