Modeling analytics in COVID-19: prediction, prevention, control, and evaluation  

作　　者：Yang Lu Therese L.Williams 

机构地区：[1]Department of Information Systems and Operations Management,University of Central Oklahoma,Edmond,OK,USA

出　　处：《Journal of Management Analytics》2021年第3期424-442,共19页管理分析学报（英文）

摘　　要：The outbreak of COVID-19 has attracted attention from all around the world.Governments and institutions have adopted ways to fight COVID-19, but itsprevalence is still strong. The SIR model has important reference value for thenovel coronavirus epidemic, offering both preventive measures and the ability topredict future trends. Based on an analysis of the classical epidemiological SIRmodel along with key parameters, this paper aims to analyze the patterns ofCOVID-19, to discuss potential anti-COVID-19 measures, and to explain whywe need to conduct appropriate measures against COVID-19. The use of theSIR model can play an important role in public health emergencies. Among theparameters of the SIR model, the contact ratio and the reproduction ratio arethe factors that have the potential to mitigate the consequences of COVID-19.Anti-COVID-19 measures include wearing a mask, washing one’s hands,keeping social distance, and staying at home if possible.

关 键 词：COVID-19 epidemiological compartment model SIR model the contact ratio the reproduction ratio social distancing 

分 类 号：R37[医药卫生—病原生物学]