三孩政策与中国人口生育的优化:背景、前景和愿景  

Three Child Policy and the Optimization of Population Fertility in China:Background,Prospect and Vision

作　　者：穆光宗[1] MU Guangzong(Institute of Population,Peking University,Beijing 100871)

机构地区：[1]北京大学人口研究所,北京100871

出　　处：《扬州大学学报（人文社会科学版）》2021年第4期65-77,共13页Journal of Yangzhou University(Humanities and Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“我国积极老龄化战略研究”(03BRK00)后期成果。

摘　　要：七普数据证实,中国已经掉入“超低生育率陷阱”,进入低生育时代的中国开启了人口学意义上的风险社会,超低生育率会引发系统性的社会风险。三孩政策是生育政策优化的进一步体现,虽有重要意义但其提升生育率的作用不可高估。保持近更替水平生育率是实现人口均衡发展、持续发展和优化发展的人口学条件。三孩政策体现了改革的包容性和生育的多样性,其真实的受益群体应该是极小众群体。中国的低生育率是高成本约束型的假性低生育和0~1孩生育观念和行为的真性低生育组合而成的内生性低生育现象,只要改变低生育的条件,生育率可能存在一定幅度的上升空间,其回升取决于国家鼓励生育的政策广度、深度和力度。在生育权限政策自身变革的过程中,鼓励性、福利性、保障性社会经济配套政策措施需要得到落实。This paper analyzes the background,prospect and vision of the three-child policy.Since 2000,The data of“Seventh National Population Census”confirms that China has fallen into the trap of“ultra-low fertility rate”.Entering the era of low fertility,China has opened a demographic risky society and ultra-low fertility rate will lead to systematic social risks.The three-child policy is a further embodiment of the optimization of the birth policy,which is of great significance,but its role in boosting the fertility rate cannot be overestimated.Maintaining the fertility rate at near replacement level is the demographic condition to achieve balanced,sustainable and optimized population development.The three-child policy reflects the inclusiveness of reform and the diversity of fertility,and its real beneficiary group should be a very small group.China's low fertility rate is an endogenous low fertility phenomenon formed by the combination of false low fertility with high cost constraint and true low fertility with 0-1 children's fertility concept and behavior,which shows that as long as the conditions of low fertility are changed,there may be some room for the fertility rate to rebound,and its rebound depends on the range,breadth,depth and strength of the national policy to encourage fertility.In the process of the reform of the reproductive rights policy itself,the social and economic supporting policies and measures of encouragement,welfare and security need to be implemented.

关 键 词：三孩政策 优化生育 超低生育率 近更替水平生育率 假性低生育率 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学]