农地资本化视角下的耕地非粮化研究  

Study on the Non-grain Utilization of Cultivated Land from the Perspective of Cultivated Land Capitalization

作　　者：戚渊 李瑶瑶 朱道林 QI Yuan;LI Yaoyao;ZHU Daolin(College of Land Science and Technology,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100193,China;Center for Land Policy and Law,Beijing 100193,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学土地科学与技术学院,北京100193 [2]中国土地政策与法律研究中心,北京100193

出　　处：《中国土地科学》2021年第8期47-56,共10页China Land Science

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(19JZD013)。

摘　　要：研究目的:探究农地资本化对耕地非粮化的影响机制,以期为农地要素市场化改革中农地过度资本化问题的防范提供决策依据。研究方法:理论分析与实证研究。研究结果:(1)随着耕地价格上涨,耕地价格与耕地非粮化存在“U”型关系,“U”曲线在耕地价格为969元/亩时取得极小值,耕地价格上涨对耕地非粮化利用的作用呈现先抑制后促进的特征;(2)耕地价格与非粮化的“U”型关系在粮食主产区和非主产区存在区域异质性,“U”型关系主要体现在粮食主产区,在耕地价格为876元/亩时取得极小值,较全样本拟合曲线的极小值拐点约降低90个单位。研究结论:农地适度资本化未对粮食安全造成冲击,而当农地过度资本化时,耕地价格上涨会促进耕地非粮化利用。未来在推进农地要素市场化改革进程中,需要政府有效介入,正确引导和监管市场机制,提高农业补贴政策效率,完善用途管制制度。The purpose of this study is to explore the influencing mechanism of cultivated land capitalization on the non-grain conversion of cultivated land,to provide the decision-making basis for preventing the excessive capitalization of cultivated land in the market-oriented reform.The research methods mainly used are theoretical analysis and empirical research.The results show that,1)as the cultivated land price increases,a“U”type relationship between the cultivated land price and the non-grain utilization of cultivated land appears,fitting the curve in the cultivated land price for 969 yuan/mu to minimum and a significant correlation coefficient under the 1%level;moreover,the cultivated land prices for non-grain use of inhibition is gradually weakened until transferred to the process of“reverse”.2)The minimum inflexion point of the fitting curve for the main grain producing areas is 876 yuan/mu,which is about 90 units lower than that of the fitting curve for the whole sample.In conclusion,the moderate capitalization of cultivated land will inhibit the non-grain utilization,while the excessive capitalization of cultivated land will promote the non-grain utilization.In the future,in the process of promoting the market-oriented reform of cultivated land factors,it is necessary for the government to intervene effectively,guide and supervise the market mechanism correctly,improve the efficiency of agricultural subsidy policy as well as the land use control system.

关 键 词：土地经济 农地资本化 多元二次回归模型 耕地非粮化 农地过度资本化 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济]