智能网联汽车产业技术创新优化路径研究——基于DEMATEL和系统动力学模型的实证分析  

Research on the Optimization Path of Technology Innovation of ICV Industry——Empirical Analysis Based on DEMATEL and System Dynamics Model

作　　者：刘颖琦[1] 席锐 周菲 LIU Ying-qi;XI Rui;ZHOU Fei(School of Economics and Management,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学经济管理学院,北京100044

出　　处：《软科学》2021年第9期37-46,共10页Soft Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(16AGL004);北京市社会科学基金项目(19GLB030);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2021YTS051)。

摘　　要：首先,基于文献梳理及产业发展分析,建立智能网联汽车产业技术创新影响因素理论模型,运用DEMATEL方法,确定不同因素在产业技术创新过程发挥作用及相互影响关系,并根据中心度与原因度分析结果,构建智能网联汽车产业技术创新系统因果关系和存量流量图。然后,基于模型设计了包括增强环境支撑、增加企业创新投入、提升产业凝聚力、促进人才吸引与培养、及多因素协同作用共5种技术创新路径的优化方案,并结合中国智能网联汽车产业数据,运用Vensim软件进行灵敏度分析。最后,根据仿真结果提出优化中国智能网联汽车产业技术创新路径的建议。Based on literature combing and industrial development analysis, this paper establishes a theoretical model of the factors influencing the technological innovation of the ICV industry, using the DEMATEL method to determine the relationship between different factors playing a role in the process of industrial technological innovation and their mutual influence, and constructs a causality and stock flow diagram of the technological innovation system of the ICV industry based on the results of centrality and causality analysis. It designs five optimization schemes for technological innovation paths and conducts sensitivity analysis using Vensim software with the data of China. Finally, it gives some suggestions for optimizing the technological innovation paths of China’s ICV industry based on the simulation results.

关 键 词：智能网联汽车 技术创新 DEMATEL 系统动力学 路径优化 

分 类 号：F264.2[经济管理—国民经济]