社会经济权重约束下的时空地理加权回归方法  

Geographically and temporally weighted regression method under constraint of socioeconomic scale

作　　者：张钰娟 赵阳阳[2] 陶坤旺[2] 张俊杰 许梦兵 ZHANG Yujuan;ZHAO Yangyang;TAO Kunwang;ZHANG Junjie;XU Mengbing(Jiangsu Ocean University,Lianyungang,Jiangsu 222023,China;Chinese Academy of Surveying&Mapping,Beijing 100036,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏海洋大学,江苏连云港222023 [2]中国测绘科学研究院,北京100036

出　　处：《测绘科学》2021年第9期184-189,共6页Science of Surveying and Mapping

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFB2102500);国家自然科学基金项目(42001343);江苏省2019年研究生实践创新项目(SJCX190967):海域使用现状管理信息系统设计与研发项目。

摘　　要：时空地理加权回归方法本质上是一种局部回归,容易放大局部的时空效应,而减小或者忽略了影响因素全局上的重要程度,造成估计偏差。为了解决这个问题,该文提出一种社会经济权重约束下的时空地理加权回归方法,在计算时空权重矩阵的同时,采用客观赋值法,利用各社会经济因素间的对比强度和冲突性,从全局角度计算各社会经济因素的权重,再基于各因素权重估算相对应的回归系数。以京津冀地区生产性服务业影响因素分析为例,进行实验验证。结果表明,新方法的RMSE和SSE比传统GTWR的分别提升了75.08%、93.9%,R2提升了13.4%,有效弥补了GTWR放大时空非平稳特征、忽略社会经济因素重要程度的不足,提升模型拟合效果。The Geographically and Temporally weighted regression analysis is essentially a local regression,which is easy to amplify the local temporal and spatial effects,while reducing or ignoring the global importance of influencing factors,causing estimation bias.In order to solve this problem,this paper proposed a Geographically and Temporally weighted regression analysis under the constraints of socio-economic weights.While calculating the spatial and temporal weight matrix,it adopted an objective assignment method and utilized the contrast intensity and conflicts between various socio-economic factors to take the overall Calculate the weight of each socioeconomic factor from the angle,and then estimated the corresponding regression coefficient based on the weight of each factor.and took the analysis of factors affecting the producer service industry in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as an example for experimental verification.The results showed that the RMSE and SSE of the new method were increased by 75.08%and 93.9%,respectively,and R2 was increased by 13.4%compared with the traditional GTWR,which effectively compensated for the spatial and temporal nonstationary characteristics amplified by GTWR and the ignorance of the importance of social and economic factors,and improved the model fitting effect.

关 键 词：时空地理加权回归模型 社会经济因素 客观赋值法 拟合效果 

分 类 号：P208[天文地球—地图制图学与地理信息工程]