农业转移人口定居意愿的影响因素及机制  

Influencing Factors and Mechanism of Settling Intention in Cities by Rural Migrant Peasant

作　　者：陶霞飞 TAO Xia-fei

机构地区：[1]南开大学周恩来政府管理学院 [2]香港城市大学

出　　处：《北京社会科学》2021年第8期98-108,共11页Social Sciences of Beijing

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(12JZD022)——流动人口管理和服务对策研究。

摘　　要：基于购房和定居的共时性决策假设,验证和控制了住房自有和定居意愿之间的内生性问题,并基于新迁移经济学和跨区域家庭生计策略理论,构建了递归双变量probit模型,探讨了农业转移人口住房自有对定居意愿的影响。实证结果表明,流入地住房自有对定居意愿有显著的积极影响,且以往相关研究都低估了住房自有对定居意愿的影响。同时家庭收入、婚姻、家庭化流动、社会网络、居留时长、家乡经济权利、流动范围等都对农业转移人口的定居意愿有显著影响。实证结果证实了农业转移人口的定居意愿是一种家庭为本的“小农理性”决策,是在社会制度排斥之下综合家庭成员发展需求、家庭定居能力以及定居收益和成本的家庭空间安排,是一种跨区域的家庭生计策略。Based on the simultaneous decision hypothesis of home ownership and settlement intention,the endogeneity problem between home ownership and settlement intention is verified and controlled,and a recursive bivariate probit model is constructed based on new economic theory of migration and multi-locational household livelihood strategy theory to explore the effect of home ownership on settlement intention of rural-urban migrant.The empirical results show that homeownership in the receiving city has a significantly positive effect on settlement intention,and previous studies have underestimated the effect of homeownership on settlement intention.At the same time,family income,marriage,and family mobility,social networks,duration of residence,economic rights in hometown and mobility range all have significant effects on settlement intention of rural-urban migrants.The empirical results confirm that the settlement intention of rural-urban migrants is a family-based“peasant rational”decision,a family spatial arrangement that integrates family members'development needs,family settlement ability,and settlement benefits and costs under social system exclusion,and it is a multi-locational family livelihood strategy.

关 键 词：住房自有 定居意愿 家庭为本 小农理性 家庭生计策略 

分 类 号：F323.6[经济管理—产业经济]