基于正态云期望和方差距离的语言型多属性决策方法研究  

Research on Linguistic Multi-attribute Decision Making Method Based on Normal Cloud Expectation and Variance Distance

作　　者：龚艳冰[1,2,3] 徐绪堪[1,2,3] 刘高峰[1,2] GONG Yan-bing;XU Xu-kan;LIU Gao-feng(Business School,Hohai University,Changzhou 213022,China;Institute of Statistic and Data Science,Hohai University,Changzhou 213022,China;Key Laboratory of Industrial Big Data Mining and Knowledge Management,Hohai University,Changzhou 213022,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学商学院,江苏常州213022 [2]河海大学统计与数据科学研究所,江苏常州213022 [3]河海大学常州市工业大数据挖掘与知识管理重点实验室,江苏常州213022

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2021年第10期12-19,共8页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“基于多源数据融合的突发事件决策需求研究”(17BTQ055);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“云模型不确定度量方法及其语言型多属性评价应用研究”(21YJAZH024)。

摘　　要：针对属性权重完全未知,属性指标值为不确定语言值的多属性决策问题,提出一种基于云模型的决策方法。首先,引入正态云的不确定度概念和正态云的期望方差距离(Manhattan距离);其次,将不确定语言值转化为正态云信息,建立基于正态云不确定度最小化的优化模型确定各属性客观权重;然后,通过云加权算术平均(CWAA)算子实现正态云信息综合集成,并通过基于Manhattan距离的TOPSIS方法得到各方案的排序;最后,运用企业竞争情报实例说明该方法的可行性和有效性。Linguistic multi-attribute decision-making(MADM)problems are widespread in the areas such as economics,management,the social sciences,engineering,and military applications.However,traditional methods are not robust enough to convert qualitative concepts to quantitative information in linguistic MADM problems,neither can they completely reflect the fuzziness and randomness inherent in qualitative concepts.Fortunately,these difficulties can be overcome by using a cloud model.The cloud model,which can synthetically describe the randomness and fuzziness of qualitative concepts and implement uncertain transformations between a qualitative concept and its quantitative instantiations,has attracted considerable attention from researchers studying multi-criteria decision-making problems involving linguistic information.In the process of linguistic MADM based on cloud model,there are two key problems:one is the determination of attribute weight,and the other is the quantitative comparison or ranking of decision-making schemes represented by normal cloud,which involves the distance measurement methods between different cloud models.Therefore,cloud distance measurement plays an important role in linguistic multi-attribute decision-making.A good distance measurement method can greatly improve the scientificity and rationality of decision-making.Aiming at the multi-attribute decision making problem in which the attribute weight is unknown and the attribute value is uncertain linguistic value,a decision-making method based on cloud model is proposed.Firstly,according to the statistical characteristics of the cloud model,fully considering the shape and location of the normal cloud,taking the expectation and variance distance of the normal cloud expectation curve and the entropy expectation curve as the starting point,a Manhattan distance of the expectation and variance of the normal cloud is given.The conversion between linguistic variables and clouds is introduced.Then,the uncertain linguistic value is transformed into the norm

关 键 词：正态云 不确定度 Manhattan距离 多属性决策 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]