旅游业影响下新疆地区航空网络结构演化系统动力学仿真  

System Dynamics Simulation of Aviation Network Structure Evolution in Xinjiang Region under the Influence of Tourism

作　　者：朱晓明 葛炬 ZHU Xiao-ming;GE Ju(College of Transportation and Logistics Engineering,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi 830052,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学交通与物流工程学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052

出　　处：《安徽师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2021年第5期472-479,共8页Journal of Anhui Normal University(Natural Science)

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金项目(2019D01A57);2020年度新疆农业大学研究生科研创新项目(XJAUGRI2020012).

摘　　要：旅游业的发展会对地区航空网络结构演化产生重要影响。通过分析旅游业发展和航空网络结构的主要特征指标,在R系数法分析指标间两两关系的基础上,构建旅游业影响下的航空网络结构演化系统动力学模型。以新疆地区2021—2030年间的航空网络结构演化为研究对象,通过模型仿真发现,在旅游业发展影响下,新疆地区航空网络结构演化呈现典型的非线性特征。“旅游兴疆”发展政策将加快新疆地区航空网络结构在2022年第三季度前的演化速度,体现在航空网络结构中的机场数量、航空出行供给、航线平均距离和航班频次的演化速率分别提升17.5%、31.4%、17.4%和69.4%。在2022年第三季度后,该政策对航空网络结构特征演化的影响变缓,届时,在不对航空网络结构产生较大影响前提下,可考虑从提高旅游人数、提升旅游产品质量和增加旅游净收入三个方面发展新疆地区旅游业。The development of tourism will have an important impact on the evolution of regional aviation network structure.By analyzing the main characteristic indicators of tourism development and aviation network structure,based on the R coefficient method to analyze the relationship between the two indicators,the system dynamics model of aviation network structure evolution under the influence of tourism industry is constructed.Taking the evolution of the aviation network structure in Xinjiang from 2021 to 2030 as the research object,through model simulation,it is found that under the influence of the development of tourism,the evolution of the aviation network structure in Xinjiang shows typical nonlinear characteristics.The development policy of"Tourism in Xinjiang"will accelerate the evolution of the aviation network structure in Xinjiang before the third quarter of 2022.The evolution rate of the number of airports,air travel supply,average route distance,and flight frequency embodied in the aviation network structure increased by 17.5%,31.4%,17.4%,and 69.4%,respectively.After the third quarter of 2022,the impact of this policy on the evolution of aviation network structure characteristics will slow down.At that time,without a great impact on the aviation network structure,the development of tourism in Xinjiang can be considered from three aspects:increasing the number of tourists,improving the quality of tourism products and increasing the net income of tourism.

关 键 词：旅游业 航空网络结构 系统动力学 演化 新疆地区 

分 类 号：U8[交通运输工程]