经济政策不确定性对中国OFDI的影响研究--来自174个国家和地区的经验证据  

The Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on China's OFDI--Empirical Evidence from 174 Countries and Regions

作　　者：努尔兰别克·哈巴斯[1] 杨梦微 Nurlanbek Hapas;Yang Mengwei(School of Economics and Management,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,Xinjiang,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆大学经济与管理学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830046

出　　处：《金融发展研究》2021年第9期12-20,共9页Journal Of Financial Development Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“‘一带一路’建设背景下大型石油企业对中亚五国直接投资的动机与行为研究”(17BGL227)。

摘　　要：文章根据2004—2019年中国对174个国家和地区直接投资的面板数据和Baker等构建的经济政策不确定性指数,采用固定面板效应模型检验了经济政策不确定性对中国OFDI的影响,并通过引入企业家信心、双边投资协定等变量分析了经济政策不确定性对中国OFDI的作用机制。研究发现:经济政策不确定性对中国OFDI有显著的促进作用;企业家信心在经济政策不确定性影响中国OFDI过程中发挥了部分中介效应;双边投资协定强化了经济政策不确定性对中国OFDI的正向效应;进一步研究发现,经济政策不确定性对中国OFDI的影响存在经济政策不确定性高低、双边贸易规模以及地理邻近关系的非对称效应。Based on the panel data of China's direct investment in 174 countries and regions from 2004-2019 and the economic policy uncertainty index constructed by Baker et al,the article uses a fixed panel effects model to test the impact of economic policy uncertainty on China's OFDI and analyzes the effect of economic policy uncertainty on Chi-na's OFDI by introducing variables such as entrepreneurial confidence and bilateral investment agreements The mecha-nism of the effect of uncertainty on OFDI in China is analyzed by introducing variables such as entrepreneurial confi-dence and bilateral investment agreements.It is found that economic policy uncertainty has a significant contribution to China's OFDI;entrepreneurial confidence plays a partial mediating effect in the process of economic policy uncertainty affecting China's OFDI;bilateral investment agreements reinforce the positive effect of economic policy uncertainty on China's OFDI;further research finds that there are asymmetric effects of high economic policy uncertainty,bilateral trade scale,and geographical proximity on the impact of economic policy uncertainty on China's OFDI.

关 键 词：经济政策不确定性 对外直接投资 企业家信心 双边投资协定 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]