基于时空关联的京杭运河苏北段通行状态研究  

Traffic status evaluation of the Beijing-Hangzhou Canal in northern Jiangsu section based on spatial-temporal correlation

作　　者：耿艳芬[1] 郭华强 刘轰 郭梦雅 Geng Yanfen;Guo Huaqiang;Liu Hong;Guo Mengya(School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing 211189, China)

机构地区：[1]东南大学交通学院,南京211189

出　　处：《东南大学学报（自然科学版）》2021年第5期859-865,共7页Journal of Southeast University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2018YFB1600400).

摘　　要：基于船岸时空关联特性与模糊综合评价理论,对京杭运河苏北段不同航段通行状态进行研究.以2019—2020年京杭运河苏北段数据为基础,综合时间尺度与空间尺度分析交通流单因素时间与空间特征;以交通流与航道基础设施为一级指标,结合多因素综合评判各航段的通行状态.结果表明:京杭运河苏北段航道在空间尺度上具有明显区域相似性,从北至南通行流量逐渐增加,通行压力增大;时间尺度上以2月为突变点,夏季交通运输繁忙,其他时间呈平稳震荡分布;苏北段航道通行状态整体饱和.研究结果能够有效反映京杭运河苏北段航道时空状况,在宏观交通通行状态判别、水上交通规划和通航调运管理等方面具有实际应用价值.The traffic status of the Beijing-Hangzhou Canal(BHC)in northern Jiangsu section was evaluated based on ship-shore spatial-temporal correlation and the fuzzy comprehensive theory.Referring to the data from BHC in 2019—2020,the temporal-spatial characteristics of single factor of traffic flow were analyzed.Taking traffic flow and infrastructure as the first-level indicators,combined with multiple factors,the traffic status of each segment was comprehensively evaluated.The results show that BHC has obvious regional similarity on spatial scale.The traffic flow and freight volume from north to south gradually increase,leading to severe traffic pressure.In terms of the time scale,February is a mutation point.The traffic is busy in summer,and the changes are stable and oscillate at other times.The overall traffic state of BHC in northern Jiangsu section is saturated.Thus,the research results effectively reflect the spatial-temporal status of BHC and have significance for macro-traffic status discrimination,water traffic planning and waterway management.

关 键 词：航道交通流 时空关联 通行状态 模糊综合评价 

分 类 号：U641.73[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]