基于HHT及改进Shapley值模型的非平稳负荷短期预测  

Short-term forecasting of non-stationary load based on HHT and improved Shapley value model

作　　者：刘海涛[1,2] 孙晓 张潮 顾思 孙放 Liu Haitao;Sun Xiao;Zhang Chao;Gu Si;Sun Fang(School of Electrical Engineering,Nanjing Institute of Technology,Nanjing 211167,China;Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Smart Distribution Network,Nanjing 211167,China)

机构地区：[1]南京工程学院电力工程学院,南京211167 [2]江苏省配电网智能技术与装备协同创新中心,南京211167

出　　处：《电测与仪表》2021年第10期43-48,共6页Electrical Measurement & Instrumentation

基　　金：江苏省2017六大人才高峰资助项目(XNY-020);2018江苏省高校重大项目(18KJA470002)。

摘　　要：随着需求侧用户终端的智能化水平的提高,短期负荷数据具有非平稳性的特点,单一的负荷预测模型和常规的组合预测模型忽略负荷数据的时序性特点,难以达到满意的预测准确度。针对此种情况,文章提出一种基于HHT和改进shapley值模型的短期负荷预测方法,通过HHT变换对非平稳负荷进行重构得到随机、周期、趋势分量;通过改进shapley值模型确定组合预测各个预测方法的权重分配,并分别应用于随机、周期、趋势分量的预测,将得到的各个预测分量进行叠加得到最终预测值。算例采用单一预测模型、未改进的Shapley组合预测模型和改进后Shapley值的组合预测模型三种方案对非平稳负荷进行短期预测,从模型精确度和稳定性两个角进行对比分析。结果表明,文章提出的预测方法具有更高的精确度和稳定性。With the improvement of intelligence level of demand-side user terminals,the short-term load data has the characteristics of non-stationarity.Single load forecasting model and conventional combined forecasting model ignore the time-sequence characteristics of load data,so it is difficult to achieve satisfactory prediction accuracy.In view of this situation,this paper proposes a short-term load prediction method based on HHT and improved Shapley value model.The non-stationary load is reconstructed to obtain random,periodic and trend components through HHT transformation.The weight distribution of each prediction method of composite prediction is determined through the improvement of Shapley value model,and it is applied to the prediction of random,periodic and trend components respectively,and the final predicted value is obtained by superposition of each predicted component.The short-term prediction of non-stationary load is carried out by using three schemes of single prediction model,unimproved Shapley combination prediction model and improved Shapley combination prediction model,and the comparative analysis is conducted from the perspective of model accuracy and stability.The results show that the prediction method proposed in this paper has higher accuracy and stability.

关 键 词：非平稳性 HHT 重构 shapley 

分 类 号：TM743[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]