中国系统性金融风险:部门分布、内外冲击与化解策略  

China's Systemic Financial Risks:Sector Distribution,Internal and External Shocks,and Mitigation Strategies

作　　者：张明[1,2] 潘松李江 孔大鹏 Zhang Ming;Pan Songlijiang;Kong Dapeng

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院金融研究所 [2]中国社会科学院国家金融与发展实验室 [3]中国社会科学院大学

出　　处：《俄罗斯研究》2021年第4期35-57,共23页Russian Studies

摘　　要：在新发展格局下,防范化解系统性金融风险,既是推动我国高质量发展的根本性任务,也是贯彻“统筹发展和安全”思想的必然要求。当前我国的系统性金融风险主要分布在四个方面:非金融企业债务、居民债务、地方政府债务以及中小金融机构业务。2020年以来,在经济潜在增速下行、房地产调控政策持续、新冠疫情与中美博弈加剧的内外四重冲击下,我国系统性金融风险有重新抬头的迹象。为了有效防范化解系统性金融风险,本文建议政府采取“新老划断”的处置办法,一方面严控增量金融风险,另一方面推动存量风险有序出清;与此同时,应该保持适当的资本管制,并且积极制定危机应对预案。Under the new development paradigm, preventing and defusing systemic financial risks is not only a fundamental task to promote high-quality development in China, but also a necessary requirement for implementing the ideology of “balancing development and security”. The current systemic financial risks in China are mainly distributed in four areas: non-financial corporate debt, household debt, local government debt, and small and medium financial institution business. Since 2020, China’s systemic financial risks have shown signs of re-emergence under the internal and external four-fold shocks of the potential economic growth decline, the continued real estate control policies, the outbreak of the COVID-19, and the intensified game between China and the United States. To effectively prevent and defuse systemic financial risks, this article recommends that the government adopt a “new and old cut-off” attitude to deal with financial risks, on the one hand, strictly control incremental financial risks, and on the other hand, promote the orderly clearing of stock risks, while maintaining appropriate capital control, and actively formulate crisis response plans.

关 键 词：系统性金融风险 新老划断 资本管制 国企产业债违约 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]