疫情与选情叠加之下2020年吉尔吉斯斯坦政局动荡分析  

An Analysis of Political Turmoil in Kyrgyzstan in 2020 under the Combination of COVID-19 and Elections

作　　者：韩彦雄 廖成梅[1] Han Yanxiong;Liao Chengmei(School of Political Science and Public Administration of Xinjiang University)

机构地区：[1]新疆大学政治与公共管理学院,乌鲁木齐830000

出　　处：《区域与全球发展》2021年第5期134-153,160,共21页Area Studies and Global Development

基　　金：2020年新疆维吾尔自治区社会科学基金一般项目“宗教极端主义对中亚国家的渗透及对丝绸之路核心区建设的影响”(项目批准号:20BGJ107)的阶段性成果;中国—上海合作组织国际司法交流合作培训基地2020年区域国别研究项目系列课题“中亚区域安全、区域合作与区域治理”(项目编号:SHPXG202012—SHPXG202017)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：吉尔吉斯斯坦独立以来,一直在艰难地进行政治转型。在转型过程中,由于直接移植西式民主政治体制,该国出现了政治大选和政局不稳经常捆绑在一起的怪圈。2020年的议会选举引发了新一轮的政局动荡。虽然此次政局动荡最终以时任总统热恩别科夫的辞职、反对派领导人扎帕罗夫担任总统而告终,但吉尔吉斯斯坦政治体制内部存在的结构性矛盾并未得到解决。未来在新冠肺炎疫情的叠加冲击下,吉尔吉斯斯坦政治局势仍将存在很大的不确定性。本文从吉尔吉斯斯坦政党政治的结构性矛盾、新冠肺炎疫情的冲击和该国脆弱的经济基础三个方面分析了引起此次政局动荡的原因。此外,作为中国的邻国和“一带一路”中亚段的重要实施国家之一,吉尔吉斯斯坦的政局变化势必会影响到“一带一路”倡议的顺利推进。因此,吉尔吉斯斯坦政局的变化对中吉两国共建“一带一路”的影响,也是本文探讨的问题之一。Since independence,Kyrgyzstan has been undergoing a difficult political transition,which has been characterized by political instability during the election year as a result of the direct transplantation of the Western-style democratic political system.The 2020 parliamentary elections triggered a new round of political turmoil.Although it ended with the resignation of Sooronbay Jeenbekov and the assumption of the presidency by opposition leader Sadyr Japarov,the structural problems within the country’s political system have not been resolved.There will still be great uncertainty in Kyrgyzstan’s politics in the context of COVID-19 and the election year.This paper analyzes the causes of the political turmoil from three perspectives:the structural problems of party politics,the impact of COVID-19,and the fragile economic base of the country.In addition,as a neighbor of China and one of the key countries in the Central Asian section of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI),political changes in Kyrgyzstan will inevitably affect the smooth implementation of the BRI.Therefore,the impact of political changes in Kyrgyzstan on the joint implementation of the BRI between China and Kyrgyzstan is also one of the topics discussed in this paper.

关 键 词：吉尔吉斯斯坦 2020年议会大选 政局动荡 政党政治 新冠肺炎疫情 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]