基于残差灰色预测模型的大红山铁矿地表沉降位移预测研究  

Research on Prediction of Surface Subsidence Displacement in Dahongshan Iron Mine Based on Residual Grey Prediction Model

作　　者：余正方 YU Zhengfang(Yuxi Dahongshan Mining Co.,Ltd.)

机构地区：[1]玉溪大红山矿业有限公司,云南省玉溪市653405

出　　处：《现代矿业》2021年第9期105-106,171,共3页Modern Mining

摘　　要：随着地下金属矿山采深的逐渐增加,开采沉陷问题越来越突出。为预测大红山铁矿地表沉降位移,根据大红山铁矿1125 m台阶监测点所收集的地表沉降位移数据,建立了残差灰色预测模型,并采用方差比和小概率误差检验方式对预测结果与实际值进行了分析。所得到预测结果与实测结果吻合良好,验证了该预测方法的工程适用性,为金属矿山地下开采诱发的地表变形和岩体移动预测提供了借鉴。With the gradual increase in the mining depth of underground metal mines,the problem of mining subsidence becomes more and more prominent.In order to predict the surface settlement displacement of Dahongshan Iron Mine,based on the ground settlement displacement data collected at the 1125 m bench monitoring point of Dahongshan Iron Mine,a residual gray prediction model was established,and the variance ratio and small probability error test method were used to check the forecast results and actual values are analyzed.The results show that the obtained prediction results are in good agreement with the actual measurement results,verifying the engineering applicability of the prediction method,and providing a reference for the prediction of surface deformation and rock mass movement induced by underground mining of metal mines.

关 键 词：地下金属矿山 开采沉陷 残差灰色预测 沉降监测 

分 类 号：TD327[矿业工程—矿井建设]