后疫情时代国际生产体系大转型:新趋势和未来方向  

Major Shift of the International Production Paradigm in the Post-Epidemic Era:New Trends and Future Directions

作　　者：詹晓宁 贾辉辉 齐凡 ZHAN James X.;JIA Huihui;QI Fan(Nankai University)

机构地区：[1]南开大学跨国公司研究中心 [2]南开大学国际经济研究所

出　　处：《国际贸易》2021年第9期4-14,共11页Intertrade

基　　金：天津社科规划项目“我国对外直接投资风险分析和预警制度研究”(JLJ18-003)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：由提高产业链韧性的需求所驱动,与来自新工业革命、全球经济治理体系的重组、可持续发展的迫切需要,以及跨国公司环境、社会和治理责任的压力相叠加,全球产业链的重组、新的区域链的建立和分布式制造的发展将重塑全球贸易和投资格局。这些趋势已经促使国际生产达到了一个拐点,新冠疫情的暴发无疑加速了这场变革的到来。鉴于国际生产体系正处于大转型时期,文章基于联合国《世界投资报告2020》的研究,从五类行业组,以多元化、区域化、复制化和产业回流这四条发展轨迹为脉络,在全球价值链的长度、生产附加值的地域分布以及全球价值链的治理这三个维度上,总结了国际生产体系可能出现的十个转变方向。在此基础上,探讨了后疫情时代国际生产尚待解决的问题,为国际生产体系未来的转型发展和政策研究提供了思考方向。Driven by the push to improve the industrial chain resilience,combined with the superposition of the new industrial revolution,the restructuring of the global economic governance,the urgent need of the sustainable development and the pressure from the environmental,social and governance responsibilities of multinational corporations,the global trade and investment landscape will be reshaped by restructuring global industrial chains,building up new regional chains and developing distributed manufacturing.These trends have already pushed international production to an inflection point,while the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic has undoubtedly accelerated this revolution.Given that the international production system is in a period of great transformation,this paper,based on the UNCTAD's World Investment Report 2020,predicts ten possible changes in the international production system from five industry groups and four development trajectories of“diversification,regionalization,replication and reshoring”in three dimensions.The three dimensions are the length of GVCs,the geographical distribution of added value and the governance of GVCs.On this basis,we discuss the unresolved problems of international production in the post-pandemic era,which provides a thinking direction for transformation and policy research of the international production system in the future.

关 键 词：国际生产 新工业革命 可持续发展 全球价值链 产业链韧性 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易]