财政压力、省以下政府策略选择与财政支出结构  

Fiscal Pressure,Strategies of Sub-Provincial Governments and the Structure of Fiscal Expenditure

作　　者：杨得前[1] 汪鼎 Yang Deqian;Wang Ding

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学公共政策评价中心 [2]江西财经大学财税与公共管理学院

出　　处：《财政研究》2021年第8期47-62,共16页Public Finance Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“地方财政策略互动对资源配置效率的影响机制与政策优化研究”(项目编号:19AJY022);国家社会科学基金重大招标项目“新时代财政制度现代化的目标、难点与实现路径”(项目编号:18ZDA098)。

摘　　要：本文利用2011-2018年中国省本级和地级市数据,考察了财政压力对地方财政支出结构的影响。结果表明,随着财政压力的增加,地级市政府在生产领域和民生领域均会采取"有保有压"的支出策略,在"保增长、促稳定"的同时,"轻创新、轻人力资本投入"。通过上移地级市政府部分支出责任来匹配自有财力,能有效调整地级市财政支出结构,有助于促进地级市政府在"保增长、促稳定"的同时,进一步兼顾经济社会的长期发展。异质性分析表明,地级市政府自身偏好和资源禀赋差异会显著影响其财政支出策略的选择。因此,为健全省以下财政体制,加快建立现代财政制度,要关注地方财政压力变化,合理划分省以下各级政府间的事权、支出责任和财力。Based on China’s province-level and prefecture-level data sets from 2011 to 2018,this paper evaluates the effect of fiscal pressure on the fiscal expenditure structure of sub-provincial governments.The results show that,with the increase of fiscal pressure,prefecture-level governments will maintain expenditure in some areas while reducing in others in both the production field and the people’s livelihood field to stabilize economic and social development.Shifting part of the expenditure responsibilities of the prefecture-level governments can effectively adjust the expenditure behavior of themselves which will help prefecture-level governments to“stabilize growth”and“protect people’s livelihood”while further taking into account the long-term economic and social development.The analysis of heterogeneity shows that the prefecture-level governments’own preference and resource endowment differences will significantly affect the choice of its fiscal expenditure strategy.So,in order to accelerate the construction of a modern fiscal system and improve the fiscal system of sub-provincial governments,the central government must pay close attention to the changes in local government fiscal pressure,and rationally divide the administrative power,expenditure responsibilities and fiscal resources among sub-provincial governments.

关 键 词：财政压力 财政支出结构 省以下政府策略行为 

分 类 号：F812.7[经济管理—财政学]