石羊河流域干旱荒漠区柠条生物量预测模型研究  

Estimation models of Caragana korshinskii biomass in arid desert area of Shiyang River Basin

作　　者：宋达成 吴昊[2] 吴春荣 Song Dacheng;Wu Hao;Wu Chunrong(Gansu Hexi Corridor Forest Ecosystem National Research Station,Wuwei,Gansu 733000;Gansu Desert Control and Research Institute,Lanzhou,Gansu 730070)

机构地区：[1]甘肃河西走廊森林生态系统国家定位观测研究站,甘肃武威733000 [2]甘肃省治沙研究所,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《中国林副特产》2021年第5期5-9,共5页Forest By-product and Speciality in China

基　　金：省级林业科技项目(2018kj066);林业科技创新平台运行补助项目(2020132066)。

摘　　要：以石羊河流域干旱荒漠区典型灌木柠条(Caragana korshinskii)为研究对象,分别以冠幅面积(C)、植株高度(H)与冠幅面积(C)的乘积(HC)为自变量,柠条枝条、叶和地上部分的实生物量为因变量进行回归分析,构建了生物量预测模型。进一步对各预测模型的判定系数(R^(2))、F检验、回归检验显著水平(P<0.001)、总相对误差(RS)和平均相对误差绝对值(RMA)等指标进行对比分析,筛选出了最优的柠条生物量预测模型。结果表明:柠条生物量的最优模型为:枝条生物量:W_(B)=-0.055(HC)^(2)+0.599(HC)+0.104;叶生物量:W_(L)=-0.001(HC)^(2)+0.01(HC)+0.006;地上生物量:W_(T)=-0.056(HC)^(2)+0.609(HC)+0.111。经验证模型的预测值与实测值拟合率在81.9%~88.4%,其预测效果较好。Taking the dominant Caragana korshinskii in the arid desert area of the Shiyang River Basin as the research object,the product of crown area(C),plant height(H)and crown area(C)was taken as independent variables.The measured biomass of branches,leaves and above-ground parts of Caragana korshinskii was analyzed by regression analysis,and the biomass prediction model was constructed.Furthermore,the determination coefficient(R^(2)),F test,significant level of regression test(P<0.001),total relative error(RS)and absolute value of mean relative error(RMA)of each prediction model were compared and analyzed,and the optimal biomass prediction model of Caragana korshinskii was selected.The results showed that the optimal estimation models of biomass for Caragana korshinskii was:(1)branch biomass:W_(B)=-0.055(HC)^(2)+0.599(HC)+0.104;(2)leaf biomass:W_(L)=-0.001(HC)^(2)+0.01(HC)+0.006;(3)the above-ground biomass:W_(T)=-0.056(HC)^(2)+0.609(HC)+0.111.The forecast results are good after testing the models whose fitting rate of predicable value and measured values are between 81.9%~88.4%.

关 键 词：柠条 生物量 预测模型 

分 类 号：S793.3[农业科学—林木遗传育种]