艾滋病合并心血管系统损害的危险因素分析及相关模型构建  

Risk factors analysis and model construction of AIDS complicated with cardiovascular system damage

作　　者：郑运星 李繁 黄树庭 廖存章 ZHENG Yunxing;LI Fan;HUANG Shuting;LIAO Cunzhang(Department of Infectious Diseases,Hezhou People's Hospital,Hezhou 542899,Guangxi,China)

机构地区：[1]贺州市人民医院感染性疾病科,广西贺州542899

出　　处：《中国性科学》2021年第9期138-141,共4页Chinese Journal of Human Sexuality

摘　　要：目的探讨艾滋病合并心血管系统损害的危险因素及相关模型的构建。方法选取2015年1月至2018年12月在贺州市人民医院接受免费抗病毒治疗的386例艾滋病患者作为研究对象。根据患者治疗期是否发生心血管系统损害分为发生组(109例)和未发生组(277例)。比较两组临床资料,通过Logis-tic回归分析找出危险因素并构建模型。用灵敏度、特异度、受试者操作特征(ROC)曲线下面积(AUC)及预测正确率评价模型效能。结果经Logistic回归分析发现治疗期发生机会性感染(OIs)、抗逆转录病毒治疗(ART)时间、C反应蛋白(CRP)、三酰甘油(TG)、CD4^(+)T淋巴细胞数、CD4^(+)/CD8^(+)T淋巴细胞比值、人类免疫缺陷病毒(HIV)-RNA病毒载量及HIV-DNA病毒载量均是艾滋病合并心血管系统损害的危险因素(P<0.05)。根据危险因素得出预测模型表达方程为:Prob=1/(e^(-Y)),Y=47.208-1.425×(治疗期发生OIs)-1.389×(ART时间)-0.512×(CRP)-0.468×(TG)-0.953×(CD4^(+)T淋巴细胞数)-1.045×(CD4^(+)/CD8^(+)T淋巴细胞比值)-0.978×(HIV-RNA病毒载量)-0.802×(HIV-DNA病毒载量)。经验证得出,模型的灵敏度为89.90%、特异度为88.10%、正确率为88.60%。结论艾滋病患者发生心血管系统损害的危险因素有OIs、ART时间、CRP、TG、CD4^(+)T淋巴细胞数、CD4^(+)/CD8^(+)T淋巴细胞比值、HIV-RNA病毒载量及HIV-DNA病毒载量,根据危险因素构建预测模型,能有效评估艾滋病患者心血管系统损害风险。Objective To explore the risk factors and construction of related models of AIDS combined with cardiovascular system damage.Methods 386 AIDS patients who received free antiviral treatment in Hezhou People's Hospital from January 2015 to December 2018 were selected and divided into the occurrence group(109 cases)and the non-occurrence group(277 cases)according to whether cardiovascular system damage occurred during the treatment.The clinical data of the two groups were compared,and the risk factors were identified by Logistic regression analysis and the model was established.Sensitivity,specificity,area under curve(AUC)of receiver operating characteristic(ROC)and prediction accuracy were used to evaluate the model effectiveness.Results Logistic regression analysis showed that OIs,ART time,CRP,TG,CD4^(+)T lymphocyte count,CD4^(+)/CD8^(+)T lymphocyte ratio,HIV-RNA viral load and HIV-DNA viral load are all risk factors for AIDS combined with cardiovascular system damage(P<0.05).Draw a predictive model based on risk factors:Prob=1/(e^(^-Y)),Y=47.208-1.425×(OIs)-1.389×(ART time)-0.512×(CRP)-0.468×(TG)-0.953×(CD4^(+)T lymphocyte count)-1.045×(CD4^(+)/CD8^(+)T lymphocyte ratio)-0.978×(HIV-RNA virus Load)-0.802×(HIV-DNA viral load).After verification,the sensitivity of the model is 89.90%,the specificity is 88.10%,and the accuracy rate is 88.60%.Conclusions The risk factors for cardiovascular system damage in AIDS patients include OIs,ART time,CRP,TG,CD4^(+)T lymphocyte count,CD4^(+)/CD8^(+)T lymphocyte ratio,HIV-RNA viral load and HIV-DNA viral load.Build predictive models based on risk factors.The prediction model was constructed according to the risk factors.It can effectively assess the risk of damage to the cardiovascular system of AIDS patients.

关 键 词：艾滋病 心血管系统损害 危险因素 相关模型 

分 类 号：R759[医药卫生—皮肤病学与性病学]