基于行为倾向的变电站人身风险量化方法  

A method of quantifying substation personal risks based on behavioural tendencies

作　　者：蒋毅 段芳铮 潘志敏 王梓糠 李泽文[2] 尹骏刚 王勋 JIANG Yi;DUAN Fangzheng;PAN Zhimin;WANG Zikang;LI Zewen;YIN Jungang;WANG Xun(State Grid Hunan Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Changsha 410004,China;School of Electrical&Information Engineering,Changsha University of Science&Technology,Changsha 410114,China;College of Electrical and Information Engineering,Hunan University,Changsha 410082,China;Hunan HDHL Electric&Information Technology Co.,Ltd.,Changsha 410285,China)

机构地区：[1]国网湖南省电力有限公司,湖南长沙410004 [2]长沙理工大学电气与信息工程学院,湖南长沙410114 [3]湖南大学电气与信息工程学院,湖南长沙410082 [4]湖南湖大华龙电气与信息技术有限公司,湖南长沙410285

出　　处：《电力科学与技术学报》2021年第4期37-43,共7页Journal of Electric Power Science And Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51877012);国网湖南省电力有限公司科技项目(5216A318000T)。

摘　　要：尽管当前电力系统智能化程度不断提高,但仍需电力系统作业人员直接参与运维检修工作。因此,研究有效量化人身风险对保障作业人员安全具有重要的现实意义。在深入探讨已有电力系统作业人员人身风险量化模型基础上,考虑当前风险危害值确定方法不足和人为选择倾向现象对人身风险量化的影响,提出基于行为倾向的变电站人身风险量化方法。该方法对风险危害值做进一步细分,并采用Bootstrap方法对风险危害值的平均数进行处理,模拟统计的不确定性;对风险评估中易出现人为选择倾向的问题,利用前景理论在风险值前乘以一个行为倾向系数ω,来反映管理者在面对事件风险值不同时的应对心理。结果表明,该文方法能更有效地量化人身风险,可为管理人员制定更符合实际的风险应对策略和资源分配方案提供参考,进一步保障现场检修人员的作业安全。Although the intelligence level of the power system is constantly improving,the operation,maintenance and repair work still require the direct participation of electricity workers,so it is of great significance to study the effective quantification of personal risks to ensure the safety of workers.Based on profoundly discussing the quantification model of personal risks of the workers in power systems,this paper proposes a quantification method of personal risks in a substation based on behavioral tendency,considering the influence of the insufficient method of determining the risk hazard value and the phenomenon of artificial selection tendency on the quantification of personal risks.The hazard value was further subdivided,and the mean of hazard value was processed by the Bootstrap method to simulate statistical uncertainty.For the problem of artificial selection tendency in risk assessment,the prospect theory is used to multiply the value of risk by a coefficient of behavioral tendencyω,so as to reflect the response psychology of managers when facing events with different risk values.The results show that this method is more effective in quantifying personal risks,which can provide references for managers to carry out practical risk response strategies and resource allocation schemes,and further guarantee the safety of operation workers.

关 键 词：前景理论 人身风险量化 统计不确定性 BOOTSTRAP方法 

分 类 号：TM08[电气工程—电工理论与新技术]