太阳活动及古气候变化对东周战争的可能影响  

The Possible Influence of Solar Activity and Paleo-climate Changeon the War in Eastern Zhou Dynasty

作　　者：尹志强[1] 韩延本[1] 马利华[1] Yin Zhiqiang;Han Yanben;Ma Lihua(National Astronomical Observatories,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院国家天文台,北京100101

出　　处：《天文研究与技术》2021年第4期567-575,共9页Astronomical Research & Technology

基　　金：国家重大科学研究计划项目(2012CB957801)资助.

摘　　要：利用历史学者统计得到的春秋战国时期战争行军距离的资料,国内东周时期的石笋、树木年轮、湖泊沉积等地质气候资料以及太阳活动资料,讨论了中国古代气候变化与春秋战国时期战争的可能联系。结果表明,在几十至百年尺度上,太阳活动以及降水、气温等自然环境的变化可能间接影响了东周战争至秦统一中国的历史过程,是史学研究中值得关注的因素。与近两千年的帝制统治时期总体的气候干冷导致饥荒而引发战争的研究推断相异,本文研究发现,春秋战国时期,战争的强度大多与温度和降水正相关。古代中国以农业为本,对气候敏感的农业决定了诸侯国的经济基础,直接影响其国力,甚至可能影响了政治体制的演进和变革。Using the statistics data of the marching distance during the Spring and Autumn period and Warring States period of China,the stalagmites,tree rings,lake deposits and solar activity data in the Eastern Zhou period in China,the possible relationship between climate change in ancient China and wars during the Spring and Autumn and Warring States period is discussed.The results show that,on the scale of tens to hundreds of years,changes in solar activity,precipitation,temperature and other natural environments may indirectly affect the historical process from the Eastern Zhou period to the unification of China by the Qin Dynasty,which is a factor worthy of attention in historical research.Different from the research inferring that the dry and cold climate led to famines and wars during the monarchy period of the past two thousand years,this paper found that the earlier period in the Eastern Zhou,the intensity of war was mostly positively correlated with temperature and precipitation.Ancient China was based on agriculture,and climate-sensitive agriculture determined the economic foundation of the vassal states,directly affected their national power,and might even affect the evolution and transformation of the political system.

关 键 词：气候变化 太阳活动 春秋 战国 战争 

分 类 号：P461.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]