中国近海三种重要渔业资源的生物学参考点评估  

Assessing Biological Reference Points for Three Important Fishery Resources in Coastal Water of China

作　　者：张清清 刘群[1] Zhang Qingqing;Liu Qun(College of Fisheries, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266003, China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学水产学院,山东青岛266003

出　　处：《中国海洋大学学报（自然科学版）》2021年第11期123-134,共12页Periodical of Ocean University of China

基　　金：中国海洋大学基本科研业务费项目(201562030)资助。

摘　　要：中国近海大多数渔业都属于数据有限渔业,用对数据要求较高的复杂模型无法对这些渔业资源做出有效评估,因此用数据有限评估模型评估渔业资源的研究具有重要意义。本文使用经典剩余产量模型(CEDA和ASPIC)和两种新型有限数据评估模型(贝叶斯Schaefer剩余产量模型(BSM)和蒙特卡洛MSY估算模型(CMSY)),评估了黄渤海鳀鱼(Engraulis japonicus)、东海带鱼(Trichiurus lepturus)和南海金线鱼(Nemipterus virgatus)这三种重要渔业资源的生物学参考点和资源现状。研究表明:黄渤海鳀鱼MSY估计值为80×10^(4)~83×10^(4)t,生物学参考点F/FMSY估计值小于1.0而B/BMSY略小于1.0,表明这种渔业捕捞强度适中但资源尚未得到完全恢复。东海带鱼MSY估计值为58×10^(4)~64×10^(4)t,F/FMSY估计值大于1.0而B/BMSY估计值小于1.0,表明这种渔业存在过度捕捞且资源已经衰退。南海金线鱼MSY为30×10^(4)~32×10^(4)t,F/FMSY估计值大于1.0而B/BMSY估计值小于1.0,表明这种渔业存在过度捕捞且资源已经衰退。以上4种模型均可适用于中国近海数据有限的渔业资源,但两种经典剩余产量模型对三种渔业数据的拟合不够稳定(相关系数R^(2)波动较大),因此取BSM和CMSY模型的评估结果作为重要参考,但这两种有限数据评估模型的拟合效果尚需进行深入研究。Most of the fisheries in the coastal waters of China are data-limited ones,and complex models with high data requirements cannot effectively evaluate these fisheries.Therefore,it is important to use new data-limited methods to assess the status of fishery resources.In this study,surplus production models(Schaefer and Fox),Bayesian state-space implementation of the Schaefer production model(BSM)and CMSY method were used to analyze the biological reference points for anchovy(Engraulis japonicus)in Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea,haitail(Trichiurus lepturus)in the East China Sea and golden threadfin bream(Nemipterus virgatus)in the South China Sea.The MSY estimate of E.japonicus varied between 80×10^(4) and 83×10^(4) t while F/FMSY was less than 1.0 and B/BMSY was less than 1.0,indicating that the fishing effort is moderate but the resources have not been fully recovered.The MSY estimate of T.lepturus ranged from 58×10^(4) to 64×10^(4) t while F/FMSY was greater than 1.0 and B/BMSY was less than 1.0,indicating that fishing effort is too high and resources are beginning to decline.The MSY estimate of N.virgatus varied between 30×10^(4) and 32×10^(4) t while F/FMSY was greater than 1.0 and B/BMSY was less than 1.0,indicating that the fishery has been overfished and the resources have declined.The above models can all be applied to the fishery resources with limited data in China.However,the fitting effect of the two classic surplus production models on the three fisheries data is relatively unstable(coefficient of determination R^(2) fluctuates greatly),so the results of BSM and CMSY models were used as references,but the comparison of the fitting effects of these two models requires further deep researches.

关 键 词：中国近海 渔业资源 贝叶斯Schaefer剩余产量模型 蒙特卡洛MSY估算模型 剩余产量模型 生物学参考点 

分 类 号：S932.4[农业科学—渔业资源]