基于变权综合灰靶模型的采空区风险等级评价  

The risk assessment of goaf based on the ariable weight synthesizing weights grey target model

作　　者：江慧敏 叶义成[1,2] 胡南燕 王其虎 陈虎[1] 吴孟龙 JIANG Huimin;YE Yicheng;HU Nanyan;WANG Qihu;CHEN Hu;WU Menglong(School of Resource and Environmental Engineering,Wuhan University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430081,China;Industrial Safety Engineering Technology Research Center of Hubei Province,Wuhan 430081,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉科技大学资源与环境工程学院,湖北武汉430081 [2]湖北省工业安全工程技术研究中心,湖北武汉430081

出　　处：《中国矿业》2021年第10期106-113,共8页China Mining Magazine

基　　金：“矿岩-充填体复杂结构体协同效应及应力协调研究”项目资助(编号:51704213);中央引导地方科技发展专项资助(编号:2019ZYYD060)。

摘　　要：采空区风险等级评价是采空区灾害监测、预防和治理的重要内容。基于灰靶理论,采用灰熵关联分析法,引入平衡函数确定指标综合权重,建立了基于变权综合灰靶模型的采空区风险等级评价方法;选取8个评价指标,构建了采空区风险等级评价指标体系;根据变权综合灰靶模型,计算得到靶心距,形成了定量化的采空区风险等级靶距图,然后以检验样本的靶心距在靶距图上的分布确定其风险等级。利用5个检验样本对变权综合灰靶模型进行了验证,评价结果与实际风险等级一致。同时,将基于灰熵关联分析方法与变权综合权重计算方法的灰靶模型评价结果进行对比,证明了变权综合灰靶模型的合理性和准确性。结果表明,采用变权综合灰靶模型对采空区进行风险等级定量化评价是合理可行的,可作为采空区灾害治理工程指导和管理的决策依据。Risk grade evaluation of goaf is an important content of disaster monitoring,prevention and control.Based on the grey target theory,the grey entropy correlation analysis method is adopted,and the balance function is introduced to determine the comprehensive weight of the index.Eight evaluation indexes are selected to build the evaluation index system of goaf risk level.According to the comprehensive grey target model of variable weight,the target distance is calculated to form a quantitative target distance map of goaf risk level,and then the risk level is determined by the distribution of target distance on the target distance map of the test sample.Five test samples are used to verify the model,and the evaluation results are consistent with the actual risk level.At the same time,the gray entropy correlation analysis method is compared with the gray target model weight calculation method,which proves the rationality and accuracy of the gray target model.The results show that it is reasonable and feasible to use the comprehensive grey target model with variable weight to evaluate the risk level of goaf quantitatively,which can be used as the guidance and management decision-making basis of goaf disaster management engineering.

关 键 词：采空区 风险评价 灰靶模型 变权综合 靶心距 

分 类 号：X936[环境科学与工程—安全科学] TD803[矿业工程—矿山开采]