基于Bow-tie正态云模型的LNG储罐风险分析  

Risk analysis of LNG storage tank based on Bow-tie normal cloud model

作　　者：李维东 周德红[1] 肖振航 张明 LI Wei-dong;ZHOU De-hong;XIAO Zhen-hang;ZHANG Ming(School of Resources and Safety Engineering,Wuhan Institute of Technology,Hubei Wuhan 430074,China;Hubei Safety Production Publicity and Education Center,Hubei Wuhan 430071,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉工程大学资源与安全工程学院,湖北武汉430074 [2]湖北省安全生产宣传教育中心,湖北武汉430071

出　　处：《消防科学与技术》2021年第9期1322-1327,共6页Fire Science and Technology

基　　金：武汉工程大学研究生教育创新基金(CX2020360)。

摘　　要：为解决Bow-tie模型无法量化LNG储罐风险的问题,建立以LNG储罐的高风险场所、高风险工艺、高风险设备、高风险物质、高风险人员这五高风险为一级要素的Bow-tie模型;引入正态云模型,以风险的可能性与严重度为云滴建立云模型,结合Python语言可视化编程生成云图,计算云贴近度,确定各要素风险等级;最后以某企业LNG储罐区进行实例分析。结果表明:Bow-tie模型中高风险场所为风险最高的一级要素,LNG储罐预冷工艺为风险最高的二级要素,其压力和温度是造成LNG泄漏的关键。通过安装压力-温度自动传感系统,可以有效预防和控制事故,可为储罐动态风险管控提供依据。In order to solve the problem that the Bow-tie model cannot quantify the risk of LNG storage tanks,a Bow-tie model was established with five high-risk elements of LNG storage tanks:high-risk sites,high-risk processes,high-risk equipment,high-risk substances,and high-risk personnel.Then the normal cloud model is introduced to establish a cloud model for the cloud drop based on the possibility and severity of risk.Combining with Python language visual program,a cloud map was generated and the cloud closeness was calculated to determine the risk level of each element.Finally,analysis was carried out with the example of an enterprise LNG storage tank farm.The results show that the high-risk sites in the Bow-tie model are the first-level element with the highest risk,and the LNG storage tank pre-cooling process is the second-level element with the highest risk.The two basic events of pressure and temperature are the keys to LNG leakage.The installation of pressure-temperature automatic sensing system can effectively prevent and control accidents.It provides a basis for dynamic risk management and control of storage tanks.

关 键 词：LNG储罐 Bow-tie模型 正态云模型 Python可视化 风险分析 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学] TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]