基于熵权的北京机场旅客吞吐量战略预测  

Strategic Forecast of Passenger Throughput in Beijing Two Airports Based on Entropy Weight

作　　者：肖淑敏 李印凤 刘妍煊 闫晨玉 傅航 XIAO Shu-min;LI Yin-feng;LIU Yan-xuan;YAN Chen-yu;FU Hang(College of Civil and Architectural Engineering,North China University of Science and Technology,Tangshan HeBei 063210,China;State Key Laboratory of Air Traffic Management System and Technology,Nanjing Jiangsu 210007,China;China Civil Aviation Air Traffic Management Bureau in North China,Beijing 100621,China)

机构地区：[1]华北理工大学建筑与工程学院,河北唐山063210 [2]中国电科28所空中交通管理系统与技术国家重点实验室,江苏南京210007 [3]中国民用航空华北地区空中交通管理局,北京100621

出　　处：《华北理工大学学报（自然科学版）》2021年第4期17-24,共8页Journal of North China University of Science and Technology：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：华北空管局科技项目(202002);民航安全能力建设项目(202072)。

摘　　要：以2010~2019年北京地区民航旅客吞吐量数据为基础,根据数据特点,构建了以多元线性回归、时间序列趋势外推和灰色GM(1,1)模型为基础预测模型,以熵权法确定权重的旅客吞吐量预测模型。针对北京两场旅客数据,对单一模型和组合预测模型的准确性和有效性进行了分析,并对北京两场2030年的旅客吞吐量进行了战略预测,针对“一市两场”模式下的资源优化分配问题提出了建议措施。研究结果表明:熵权法修订后的结果在一定程度上增强了评估结果的客观性。Based on the passenger throughput data of civil aviation in Beijing from 2010 to 2019,according to the characteristics of the data,the prediction model of passenger throughput wasconstructed,the prediction model takes the multiple linear regression,time series trend extrapolation and gray GM(1,1)model as the basis,and it’s weight was determined by entropy weight method.In view of two airports in Beijing,the accuracy and effectiveness of the single model and the combined forecasting model were analyzed.A strategic forecast was made on the passenger throughput of the two Beijing two fields before 2030,and suggested measures were put forward for the optimal allocation of resources under the“one city,two airports”model.The results show that the revised results of the entropy weight law enhance the objectiveness of the evaluation results to a certain extent.

关 键 词：熵权法 多元回归模型 趋势外推模型 灰色GM(1 1)模型 旅客吞吐量预测 

分 类 号：TP183[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程] V351[自动化与计算机技术—控制科学与工程]