人口老龄化、房价高企与产业结构升级  

Aging Population,High Housing Prices and Upgrading of Industrial Structure

作　　者：潘爱民[1] 马健 PAN Ai-min;MA Jian(School of Business, Hunan University of Science and Technology, Xiangtan Hunan 410021)

机构地区：[1]湖南科技大学商学院,湖南湘潭411021

出　　处：《湖南财政经济学院学报》2021年第5期5-18,共14页Journal of Hunan University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“多主体利益博弈下房地产供求差异化机制与分类调控体系研究”(项目编号:16BJY006)。

摘　　要：从中国人口老龄化日益加剧的现实出发,结合当前房价高企的现象与产业转型升级的迫切需求,利用2007-2018年的省级数据,从全国和区域层面实证考察人口老龄化对产业结构升级的影响,并检验房价是否作为中介变量影响其作用过程。研究发现:在全国层面上,老龄化和房价都直接促进了产业结构升级,且老龄化会通过房价作为中介影响产业结构升级;分区域来看,东中西部地区老龄化对产业结构升级均具有促进作用,但房价的中介效应仅在中部地区出现;从收入水平层面来看,中低收入地区老龄化促进了产业结构升级,房价存在中介效应,而在高收入地区不存在。Based on the reality of China's increasingly aging population,and the current phenomenon of high housing prices and the urgent needs of industrial transformation and upgrading,this paper uses the provincial data from 2007 to 2018 to empirically investigate the impact of population aging on the upgrading of industrial structure from the national and regional levels,and tests whether housing prices affect its process as an intermediary variable.The results show that:at the national level,both aging and housing prices directly promote the upgrading of industrial structure,and aging will affect the upgrading of industrial structure through housing prices.From the regional point of view,the aging of eastern,central and western regions can promote the upgrading of industrial structure,but the intermediary effect of housing prices only appears in the central region.From the perspective of income level,the aging of low-and middle-income areas promotes the upgrading of the industrial structure,and housing prices have an intermediary effect,but it does not exist in high-income areas.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 产业结构升级 房价高企 区域差异 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]