最热(冷)月时段温度作为农业种植区划指标的探讨  

Discussion on the duration of the hottest or coldest month as crop planting zoning index

作　　者：马振玉 姜会飞[1] MA Zhenyu;JIANG Huifei(College of Resources and Environmental Sciences,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100193,China;Shidao Meteorological Observator of Weihai Meteorological Bureau,Weihai 264200,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100193 [2]山东省石岛气象台,山东威海264200

出　　处：《中国农业大学学报》2021年第9期63-73,共11页Journal of China Agricultural University

基　　金：热带与特色林果气象灾害监测预警技术与业务平台(2019YFD1002203);科技部“十三五”国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC1502801)。

摘　　要：为解决农业区划中多以7月(1月)替代最热(冷)月的简单替代而导致的温度误差问题,探索最热(冷)月温度的准确统计方法。以宁夏银川地面气象站1951—2019年逐日气温数据为研究对象,31d为月时长,采用农业气象统计学方法,统计分析最热(冷)月时段起止日期和温度的年际变化。结果表明:(1)最热(冷)月发生时间多在7月(1月),多年平均最高(低)月平均温度发生在7月(1月),最热(冷)月时段起止时间分别跨越6月中旬—8月下旬和12月上旬—2月中旬。(2)1951—2019年,最热月时段比7月温度最多高2.0℃,平均高0.5℃,最冷月时段比1月温度最多低4.6℃,平均低1.1℃。(3)按世界气象组织WMO气候值30年统计标准,1951—2010年4个气候标准时段间,最热(冷)月时段起止日期相对稳定,温度呈升高趋势,最冷月时段升温幅度是最热月时段的近3倍。(4)最热(冷)月时段温度气候预估准确率分别为92.1%和55.3%。因此,本研究中最热(冷)月时段温度统计方法准确测算了最热(冷)月时段起止日期和温度,对最热月时段温度预估准确率较高,但最冷月时段温度预估准确率仍有待提高。To solve the problem of temperature error caused by the simple substitution of July/January for the hottest/coldest duration in agricultural regionalization,a more accurate statistical method of temperature in the hottest/coldest month was explored.The daily temperature data of Yinchuan ground meteorological station in Ningxia Province were taken as the research object,and 31 days was set as the month-long period.This study adopted agricultural meteorological statistics method to analyze the annual change of the start and end date and temperature of the hottest/coldest month-long period.The results showed that:(1)the hottest/coldest month occurred mostly in July/January and the average temperature of the hottest/coldest temperature occurred in July/January as well.The hottest periods occurred during mid-June to late August,and the coldest months occurred during early December to mid-February.(2)From 1951 to 2019,the hottest month-long period’s maximum temperature was 2.0 ℃ higher than the maximum temperature in July and 0.5 ℃ higher on average.The coldest month-long period’s lowest temperature was 4.6 ℃lower than the lowest temperature in January and was 1.1 ℃lower on average.(3)By using the 30-year standard of WMO climate normals,with four standard periods during 1951 to 2010,the dates of the hottest/coldest month-long periods were relatively consistent,the average temperature was rising,and the coldest month-long period’s average temperature was increasing at almost 3 times that of the hottest month-long period.(4)The hottest average temperature prediction reached 92.1% accuracy and the coldest average temperature prediction had 55.3% accuracy.Therefore,this method in the study can accurately predict the average temperature of the hottest month-long period but still needs to be improved to predict the lowest average temperature of the coldest month-long period.

关 键 词：最热月 最冷月 滑动平均 热均段 冷均段 

分 类 号：S161.2[农业科学—农业气象学]