中美装备制造业进入“修昔底德陷阱”了吗?--全球价值链视角下的多维透视  

Has China and the US Equipment Manufacturing Entered the“Thucydides Trap”?:Multidimensional Analysis from the Perspective of Global Value Chain

作　　者：李之旭 高运胜[2] Li Zhixu;Gao Yunsheng

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院 [2]上海对外经贸大学国际经贸学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2021年第9期45-59,共15页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“价值链视角下本土市场、创新资源投入与出口企业技术创新研究”(17BJL107)。

摘　　要：中美贸易摩擦不断,装备制造业成为双方竞争的焦点。本文基于贸易增加值分解、结构分解分析(SDA)以及全球价值链网络可视化方法,研判中美装备制造业是否具备进入"修昔底德陷阱"的条件。研究发现:中国装备制造业对美出口的贸易利益被严重高估;不仅总值贸易下存在"统计幻象",而且贸易增加值视角下的中国装备制造业竞争力也仍然"虚高";分解垂直专业化结构以及前、后向贸易增加值变动结构发现,中国装备制造业出口国内增加值与竞争力指数的提升并非技术驱动,而主要由低增值环节生产扩张推动;分析增加值贸易网络发现,中美装备制造业对彼此市场均高度依赖,未来存在较大合作的空间。综合来看,中国装备制造业尚不具备全面抗衡美国的竞争力,双方表现为"竞争共存"的关系,"修昔底德陷阱"更多为美方营造"中国威胁"而炮制的舆论热点。本文从提升制造业服务化与对外开放水平,调整全球产业链布局,构建中美合作共赢产业合作关系几个方面提出相关政策启示。In the Sino-US trade friction,the equipment manufacturing industry has become the focus of competition.This article uses World Input-Output Database(WIOD),based on gross export decomposition methods,Structural Decomposition Analysis(SDA)methods,and network visualization methods to analyze whether equipment manufacturing in China and the United States meets the conditions to enter the"Thucydides trap".The study found that the trade benefits of China’s equipment manufacturing exports to the United States are seriously overestimated;not only is there a"statistical illusion"under gross exports,the competitiveness of China’s equipment manufacturing from the perspective of value-added exports is still"inflated";through the decomposition of the vertical specialization structure and the split of the changes in value-added exports based on forward and backward industrial linkages,it is found that the increase of China’s equipment manufacturing domestic value-added exports and competitiveness index is not driven by technology,but by the expansion of low value-added production;analyzing the network of value-added trade,it is found that equipment manufacturing in China and the United States are highly dependent on each other,and there is more room for cooperation between these two sides.On the whole,China’s equipment manufacturing industry cannot yet compete with the United States,and the"Thucydides trap"is a hot topic of public opinion fabricated by the US to create a"China threat".The thesis proposes relevant policy enlightenment from several aspects of improving the level of manufacturing servitization and opening-up,adjusting the global industrial chain,and building a win-win industrial cooperation relationship between China and the United States.

关 键 词：产业竞争力 垂直专业化分工结构 SDA 增加值贸易网络 修昔底德陷阱 

分 类 号：F222[经济管理—国民经济]