基于赤水河流域生态补偿的政府和社会资本合作项目风险识别与分担  

Risk identification and allocation of the Public-Private Partnership project based on ecological compensation in Chishui Watershed

作　　者：张丛林 黄洲 郑诗豪 陈劭锋 董磊华[5] 乔海娟[6,7] ZHANG Conglin;HUANG Zhou;ZHENG Shihao;CHEN Shaofeng;DONG Leihua;QIAO Haijuan(Institutes of Science and Development,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;Huzhou Traffic Technical College,Huzhou 313000,China;China Water Resources Beifang Investigation,Design and Research Corporation Limited,Tianjin 300222,China;School of Public Policy and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;Powerchina Beijing Engineering Corporation Limited,Beijing 100024,China;Research Institute for Rural Electrification,Ministry of Water Resources,Hangzhou 310012,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,北京100190 [2]湖州交通技师学院,湖州313000 [3]中水北方勘测设计研究有限责任公司,天津300222 [4]中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院,北京100049 [5]中国电建集团北京勘测设计研究院有限公司,北京100024 [6]水利部农村电气化研究所,杭州310012 [7]南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,南京210029

出　　处：《生态学报》2021年第17期7015-7025,共11页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1508204);国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(71503245);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK0401);2018年度教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(18JZD059)。

摘　　要：赤水河流域为生态脆弱区域,现行的流域生态补偿机制存在补偿资金来源单一、总量不足且持续性较差、补偿方式较为单一等问题。将政府和社会资本合作(Public-Private Partnership,PPP)模式应用于建立赤水河流域生态补偿机制,有助于拓宽补偿资金来源、增加资金总量、丰富补偿方式,推动各利益相关方收益共享、风险共担。与传统PPP项目相比,基于流域生态补偿的PPP项目具有更为复杂的风险结构,风险因素的正确识别和合理分担是成功运用PPP模式完善赤水河流域生态补偿机制的关键。识别基于赤水河流域生态补偿的PPP项目运作关键环节,甄别各环节面临的主要风险因素;基于云理论建立风险分担模型;将有关风险在政府和社会资本间进行分担。研究结果表明:(1)基于赤水河流域生态补偿的PPP项目运作过程共包括项目准备、项目实施和项目合同终结等三个阶段、共11个关键环节,各环节共面临26个主要风险因素。(2)分析了有关风险因素可能对赤水河流域生态补偿机制或PPP项目产生的不利影响,并指出了风险引致方。(3)在项目准备阶段,政府拥有绝对的资源优势,以政府为主承担主要风险;在项目实施阶段,项目风险总体上由政府承担为主向社会资本承担为主转移,80%的风险主要由社会资本承担;特许经营期满后,社会资本将项目的经营权(或所有权与经营权同时)向政府移交,在项目合同终结阶段,有关风险再次以政府承担为主。The Chishui Watershed is an ecological fragile region.The current ecological compensation mechanism in the Chishui Watershed has problems such as single source of compensation funds,insufficient total amount,poor sustainability,and relatively simple compensation mode.For ecological compensation mechanism in the Chishui Watershed,the Public-Private Partnership(PPP)model can potentially broaden the sources of supplementary funding,increase total funding,diversify modes of compensation,and facilitate sharing of profit and allocation of risks between stakeholders.Compared to traditional PPP projects,PPP projects based on watershed ecological compensation involve a more complex risk structure.In order to improve the ecological compensation mechanism of the Chishui Watershed by using the PPP model,correct risk identification and effective risk-allocation are crucial.The key links of PPP project based on ecological compensation in Chishui Watershed are identified,and the main risk factors of each key link are identified.A risk allocation model was established through the cloud theory,showing the risk allocation situation between the public and private partners.The results show that:(1)the process of PPP project based on ecological compensation in Chishui Watershed includes three stages:project preparation,project implementation and project contract termination.11 key links are identified.There are 26 main risk factors in these key links.(2)The adverse impacts of risk factors on the watershed ecological compensation mechanism or PPP project in the Chishui Watershed are analyzed,along with their sources.(3)The risk allocation proportion between the public and private partners changes at different stages of PPP project.Specifically,during the project preparation stage,the public partner bears the majority of risk factors because of absolute resource advantages;during the project implementation stage,the private partner bears 80%risk factors;during the contract termination stage,private partner transfer the project′s mana

关 键 词：赤水河 生态脆弱区 流域生态补偿 政府和社会资本合作(PPP)模式 风险识别 风险分担 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F283[经济管理—国民经济]