气候变化下参考作物腾发量演变特征及主控因子研究  

Research on Evolution Characteristics and Main Controlling Factors ofReference Crop Evapotranspiration under Climate Change

作　　者：宫俪芹 刘群昌[2] 马延勇 彭致功[2] 张凤 董洁[1] GONG Liqin;LIU Qunchang;MA Yanyong;PENG Zhigong;ZHANG Feng;DONG Jie(College of Hydraulic and Civil Engineering,Shandong Agricultural University,Tai′an 271018,China;State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in Watershed,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;Tai′an City Daiyue District River Management and Protection Center,Tai′an 271018,China)

机构地区：[1]山东农业大学水利土木工程学院,山东泰安271018 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [3]岱岳区河道管理保护中心,山东泰安271018

出　　处：《华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）》2021年第5期88-93,共6页Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0407703);宁夏回族自治区重点研发计划重大项目(2018BBF02022);永定河流域投资有限公司项目(ID0203A532020)。

摘　　要：为对气候变化下不同时间尺度参考作物腾发量(ET 0)的变化规律及其主控因子进行研究,为北京地区制定作物灌溉制度提供参考。基于1970—2019年北京市的逐日气象资料,对不同时间尺度上ET 0进行趋势分析,并采用相关分析与因子分析相结合的方法确定ET 0主控因子。研究表明:①日尺度下,ET 0年内变化呈双峰型曲线变化,第一峰值为5.32 mm/d,第二峰值为3.93 mm/d,年内均值为2.78 mm/d;月尺度下,ET 0呈单峰变化趋势,1月份最低,5月份最高,分别为31.3、148.2 mm;ET 0的年际变化范围为901.33~1095.47 mm,年际变化倾向率为6.32 mm/(10年)。②各气象因子与ET 0的相关性随年内月份的不同而表现出差异性,仅采用相关分析法难以真实厘清各个气象因子对ET 0的影响作用;采用因子分析后可知,影响北京地区夏季和春季ET 0的主控因子分别是温度辐射因子和湿度日照风速因子;结合相关性分析表明,北京地区ET 0增加趋势主要是气候升温导致的。本研究对气候变化下北京地区未来农业用水管理具有实际指导意义。To study the change rule and main controlling factors of reference crop evapotranspiration(ET 0)in different time scales under climate change,based on the daily meteorological data from 1970 to 2019,the trend analysis of ET 0 on different time scales was carried out,and the main controlling factors of ET 0 were determined by combining correlation analysis and factor analysis.Studies show that:①ET 0 showed a bimodal curve in the diurnal scale,with the first peak of 5.32 mm/d,the second peak of 3.93 mm/d,and the annual mean of 2.78 mm/d.ET 0 showed a unimodal trend at the monthly scale,with the lowest value in January and the highest value in May,which were 31.3 mm and 148.2 mm,respectively.The interannual variation of ET 0 ranges from 901.33 to 1095.47 mm,and its interannual variation tendency rate is 6.32 mm every 10 years.②The correlation between the meteorological factors and ET 0 varies with the month of the year.It is difficult to make clear the influence of the meteorological factors on ET 0 by the correlation analysis method only.Factor analysis showed that temperature radiation factor and humidity sunshine wind speed factor were dominant in summer and spring respectively.The correlation analysis shows that the increasing trend of ET 0 in Beijing is mainly caused by the warming under climate change.This study has practical guiding significance for future agricultural water management in Beijing under climate change.

关 键 词：参考作物腾发量 相关分析 因子分析 时间尺度 

分 类 号：S274[农业科学—农业水土工程] TV124[农业科学—农业工程]