负利率政策对商业银行的影响及对策——西方发达国家实践与中国对策  

Impacts of Negative Interest Rates Policy on Commercial Banks——The Practice of Western Developed Countries and China’s Countermeasures

作　　者：温彬[1] 霍天翔[1] WEN Bin;HUO Tianxiang

机构地区：[1]中国民生银行

出　　处：《金融监管研究》2021年第6期1-20,共20页Financial Regulation Research

摘　　要：新冠肺炎疫情全球蔓延,拖累全球实际中性利率进一步下探至历史低位。及时研究西方发达国家负利率政策与银行实践,对于我国绸缪全球负利率带来的问题具有重要意义。本文系统分析负利率政策的理论基础、传导机制与效果影响,将负利率政策实践与银行FTP定价理论相结合,以日本、欧洲主要商业银行负利率经营和丹麦商业银行推出的全球首个负利率贷款金融产品为例,从中、微观两个层面客观评价负利率政策对西方商业银行的影响。研究发现,负利率政策重塑了商业银行内部资金转移定价的方式,改变了银行的盈利模式,一定程度上突破了传统货币理论"零利率下限"的约束。但是,政策利率传导的有效性受到现金存储技术和银行能否自由地根据市场环境调整存贷款利率等因素的影响。对此,本文建议我国应积极布局数字货币,发展无现金社会,加快破解零利率下限约束的技术应用,为负利率政策在商业银行体系内的有效传导创造先决条件。建议商业银行做好前瞻管理,尽快进行内部资金定价管理和利率风险管理的压力测试。建议货币当局发挥好审慎政策的逆周期调节,维持稳健的货币政策,深化贷款市场报价利率改革,提高存款利率市场化水平,积极消除负利率政策可能带来的银行信贷收缩和传导堵点。The COVID-19 epidemic spread around the world, dragging global real neutral interest rates further down to historic lows. Timely study of negative interest rate policy and bank practice in western developed countries is of great reference significance for China to prepare for the era of global negative interest rate. This paper compares the practice of negative interest rate policies in Japan and Europe, as well as the world’s first negative interest rate mortgage of Jyske Bank Private Banking. It is found that the negative interest rate policy reshapes the funds transfer pricing of commercial banks, changes the profit model of banks, and breaks through the constraint of "zero lower bound" of traditional monetary theory. However, the transmission mechanism for negative interest rate policy is affected by cash storage technology and whether banks can adjust deposit and loan rates freely according to the market environment. Therefore, this paper suggests that China should actively layout digital currency, develop a cashless society, speed up the application of technology to crack the constraint of zero lower bound, and create prerequisite conditions for the effective transmission of negative interest rate policy in the commercial banking system. It is suggested that commercial banks should do a good job of forward-looking management and carry out stress tests of internal capital pricing management and interest rate risk management as soon as possible. It is suggested that the People’s Bank of China should give full play to the counter-cyclical adjustment of prudent policies, maintain a prudent monetary policy, deepen reform of Loan Prime Rate,improve deposit interest rates more market-based,and actively eliminate the contraction of bank credit and transmission blocking point that may be brought about by negative interest rate policy.

关 键 词：负利率政策 零利率下限约束 Jyske银行 内部资金转移定价 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]