房地产投资会阻碍区域经济增长吗?——基于中国2000—2017年的经验证据  

Does Real Estate Investment Hinder Regional Economic Growth?Based on the empirical evidence of China from 2000 to 2017

作　　者：顾晓安[1] 李慧婕 李文卿[1] GU Xiao-an;LI Hui-jie;LI Wen-qing(Business School,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai 200093,China)

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院,上海200093

出　　处：《科技和产业》2021年第9期7-14,共8页Science Technology and Industry

摘　　要：近年来中国经济出现增长速度放缓、产业结构失衡等一系列问题,资源错配是产生这些问题的原因之一。从房地产投资出发,分析其通过房地产业、非房地产业、消费、经济风险影响经济增长的作用机制,并利用中国31个省(直辖市、自治区)2000—2017年的面板数据加以实证考察。研究发现:在观测期内,房地产投资对经济增长的促进作用低于非房地产投资;全国样本的实证结果显示房地产投资与经济增长呈现倒“U”形关系,说明房地产投资的增加最终会阻碍经济增长;分区域样本的实证结果表明,东北地区和中部地区与全国样本的趋势一致,呈现倒“U”形关系。其中,东北地区只有辽宁省于2014年跨过拐点,房地产投资对东北地区经济增长主要起到促进作用;中部地区6省分别从2008—2011年开始陆续跨过拐点,并持续至样本期末,说明房地产投资对中部地区经济增长造成的负面影响已经持续了10年左右。东部和西部地区的房地产投资与区域经济增长呈现显著的正向线性关系。In recent years,China's economy has experienced a series of problems,such as the slowdown of growth rate and the imbalance of industrial structure.One of the reasons for these problems is the mismatch of resources.Starting from the real estate investment,analyzes the mechanism of its influence on economic growth through the real estate industry and related industries,consumption and economic risks,and makes an empirical study by using the panel data of 31 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)in China from 2000 to 2017.The results show that:In the observation period,the promotion effect of real estate investment on economic growth was lower than that of non real estate investment.The empirical results of national samples show that the relationship between real estate investment and economic growth presents an inverted U-shaped,which indicates that the increase of real estate investment will eventually hinder economic growth.The empirical results of sub regional samples show that the northeast and central regions are different from the whole region The trend of Chinese samples is consistent,showing an inverted U-shaped relationship.Among them,only Liaoning Province in Northeast China crossed the inflection point in 2014,and real estate investment played a major role in promoting economic growth in Northeast China;six provinces in Central China successively crossed the inflection point from 2008 to 2011,and continued to the end of the sample period,indicating that the negative impact of real estate investment on economic growth in Central China has lasted for about 10 years.There is a significant positive linear relationship between real estate investment and regional economic growth in the eastern and western regions.

关 键 词：房地产投资 经济增长 倒“U”形 区域异质性 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]