国际能源价格波动对中国PPI的结构性冲击  

Structural impact of international energy price fluctuations on China’s PPI

作　　者：陈天妮 CHEN Tian-ni(Department of Finance&Banking,Postgraduate Institute,Uni-versity of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学研究生院金融系,北京102488

出　　处：《价格月刊》2021年第11期14-19,共6页

基　　金：上海市科学技术委员会、上海市高新技术成果转化项目(编号:SSZ5181TXC)。

摘　　要：近些年来,随着中国经济的高速发展,对原油的需求越来越大,原油价格波动对中国经济的影响也日益明显。以2012—2020年数据为基础,通过构建VAR模型,研究国际能源价格波动导致的中国PPI结构性冲击,对负面影响的不对称性进行考察。从最终结果得知,国际能源价格的波动会相应影响到上游能源开发、中游化工行业以及能源产业链的终端。价格波动造成的冲击会对PPI产生影响,但这种影响有着沿产业链递减的趋势,所以急需对企业架构进行优化来推动企业转型升级。In recent years,with the rapid development of China’s economy,the demand for crude oil has be-come higher and higher,and the impact of crude oil price fluctuations on China’s economy has become in-creasingly obvious.Based on the data from 2012 to 2020,this paper constructed a VAR model to study the structural impact of China’s PPI caused by international energy price fluctuations and investigate the asymmetry of negative effects.From the final results,we know that the fluctuations of international energy prices will corre-spondingly affect the upstream energy development,the midstream chemical industry and the terminal of the en-ergy industry chain.The impact caused by price fluctuations will have an influence on PPI,but this influence has a decreasing trend along the industrial chain,so it is urgent to optimize the enterprise structure to promote the transformation and upgrading of enterprises.

关 键 词：国际能源 价格波动 PPI 面板结构 VAR 模型 

分 类 号：F714[经济管理—产业经济]