基于MIKE模型的取水可靠性分析  

Reliability Analysis of Water Intake Based on MIKE Model

作　　者：梁志宏 郑江丽 陈秀洪 刘夏 LIANG Zhihong;ZHENG Jiangli;CHEN Xiuhong;LIU Xia(Key Laboratory of the Pearl River Estuary Regulation and protection of Ministry of Water Resources,Guangzhou 510611,China;Pearl River Water Resources Research Institute,Guangzhou 510611,China)

机构地区：[1]水利部珠江河口治理与保护重点实验室,广东广州510611 [2]珠江水利委员会珠江水利科学研究院,广东广州510611

出　　处：《人民珠江》2021年第10期18-23,31,共7页Pearl River

基　　金：贵州省水利厅科技专项经费项目(KT201904);广西重点研发计划(NO.902229136010)。

摘　　要：取水可靠性是影响工程运行的主要因素之一,确保取水可靠是工程投入使用的前提。以梧州市千万吨级冶金新材料产业基地为研究对象,基于MIKE软件中的MIKE21模块,建立并求解水动力学模型,分析了取水方案的可靠性,同时,针对存在取水风险的方案,提出了相应对策。结果表明:①枯水期,长洲水利枢纽水位较高,水库蓄水能够满足工程设计取水需要;②平水期,长洲水利枢纽需要开闸以保障防洪安全,若浔江支流上小河来流量丰富,取水有保障,若浔江支流上小河来流量较少时,工程存在取水风险;③疏浚河道、下移取水口等对策能够有效增加工程的可取水量,从而规避平水期工程的取水风险。研究结果对于梧州市千万吨级冶金新材料产业基地的建设具有指导意义,对于利用MIKE21进行取水可靠性分析具有理论意义。The reliability of water intake is one of the main factors affecting the operation of the project,and is a prerequisite for the project to be put into use.Taking the 10 million-ton-level metallurgical new material industrial base in Wuzhou as the research object,based on the MIKE21 module in the MIKE software,this paper establishes a hydrodynamic model for verifying the reliability of the existing water intake scheme,as well as puts forward the corresponding countermeasures for the scheme with water intake risk.The results show that:①During the dry season,the water level of the Changzhou Water Control Project is relatively high,and the reservoir storage can meet the design water intake quantity of the project;②During the normal water period,the gates of Changzhou Water Control Project need to be opened to ensure the safety of flood control.If the inflow of the Shangxiaohe tributary of Xunjiang River is abundant,the project is guaranteed with water intake.If the inflow of the Shangxiaohe tributary is small,the project will have water intake risk;③Countermeasures such as dredging the river channel and lowering the water intake can effectively increase the water intake of the project,thereby avoiding the water intake risk of the project during the normal water period.The research results are of guiding significance for the construction of the 10 million-ton-level metallurgical new material industrial base in Wuzhou,and of theoretical significance for water intake reliability analysis through MIKE21.

关 键 词：取水可靠性 水动力模型 取水风险 风险规避对策 

分 类 号：S27[农业科学—农业水土工程] TV93[农业科学—农业工程]