基于均一化资料的广州近百年气温变化特征研究  

Study on the change characteristics of Guangzhou centennial air temperature based on the homogenization data

作　　者：潘蔚娟[1] 吴晓绚 何健[2] 吕勇平[1] 艾卉 PAN Wei-Juan;WU Xiao-Xuan;HE Jian;LYU Yong-Ping;AI Hui(Guangzhou Meteorological Administration,Guangzhou 511430,China;Guangdong Provincial Climate Center,Guangzhou 510080,China)

机构地区：[1]广州市气象局,广州511430 [2]广东省气候中心,广州510080

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2021年第4期444-454,共11页Climate Change Research

基　　金：广州市科技计划项目(201704020194);广东省气象局科学技术研究项目(GRMC2019M27);广东省科技计划项目(2017ZC0403)。

摘　　要：利用RHtest软件结合台站元数据对广州1908—2019年平均气温进行非均一性检验和订正,结果显示在1912、1928、1942、1988、1995、2004和2010年有7个显著的非均一间断点,订正后升温速率为1.39℃/(100a),较订正前显著增加,具有准50 a和准3 a的显著周期。运用DB16正交小波分析其多时间尺度变化特征,结果显示方差贡献最大的是趋势分量,其次是准3 a和准6 a周期分量。趋势分量从20世纪40年代开始呈现持续的升温趋势;20世纪80年代中期至20世纪末的快速增暖是准50 a和准20 a周期分量的上升期叠加于趋势分量的结果;1998—2014年增暖停滞特征是准50 a、准20 a和准10 a这3个年代际周期分量的降温位相叠加在趋势分量上引起的。RHtest software and station metadata were used to detect and adjust artificial shifts of the annual average temperature of Guangzhou during 1908-2019. The results showed that there were seven significant abrupt change points in 1912, 1928, 1942, 1988, 1995, 2004 and 2010. The temperature increasing rate was 1.39℃/(100 a), which was higher than the series without homogenization adjustment, with significant quasi-50-year and quasi-3-year periods. DB16 orthogonal wavelet was applied to analyze the multiple time scale changing characteristics. The trend component had the largest variance contribution, followed by quasi-3-year and quasi-6-year periodic components. The trend component began to show a continuous warming trend from the 1940 s. The rapid warming from the middle 1980 s to the end of the 20 th century was the result of superposition of the rising phase of the quasi-50-year period component, quasi-20-year period component and the trend component. The warming hiatus from 1998 to 2014 was caused by the superposition of the cooling phase of the quasi-50-year period component, quasi-20-year period component and the quasi-10-year period component.

关 键 词：均一化 百年气温 多时间尺度 广州市 

分 类 号：P423[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]