基于多元统计分析的东欢坨矿突水水源判别研究  

Discrimination on mine water inrush source in Donghuantuo Mine based on multivariate statistical analysis

作　　者：孙文洁 杨恒[1] 徐陈超 张恩雨 SUN Wen-jie;YANG Heng;XU Chen-chao;ZHANG En-yu(National Engineering Research Center of Coal Mine Water Hazard Controlling,China University of Mining and Technology(Beijing),Beijing 100083,China;State Key Laboratory of Nuclear Resources and Environment,East China University of Technology,Nanchang 330013,China;Hebei Provincial Key Laboratory of Mine Disaster Prevention,North China Institute of Science and Technology,Beijing 101601,China)

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学(北京)国家煤矿水害防治工程技术研究中心,北京100083 [2]东华理工大学核资源与环境国家重点实验室,江西南昌330013 [3]华北科技学院河北省矿井灾害防治重点实验室,北京101601

出　　处：《煤炭工程》2021年第9期112-116,共5页Coal Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2017YFC0804104);核资源与环境国家重点实验室(东华理工大学)开放基金(NRE1906);河北省矿井灾害防治重点实验室开放课题(KJIH2019K01);中央高校基本科研业务费项目(2013QD03)。

摘　　要：针对矿井突水水源判别准确率较低的问题,基于多元统计分析构建矿井突水水源判别模型,选取K^(+)+Na^(+)、Ca^(2+)、Mg^(2+)、SO_(4)^(2-)、Cl^(-)、及HCO^(-)_(3)水化学指标作为矿井突水水源判别依据,采用东欢坨矿5煤顶板含水层及12-2煤底板含水层的水质分析资料作为训练样本和测试样本,其中,训练样本35个,测试样本10个。判别结果表明:突水水源判别正确率达86.7%,判别结果显著,可信度高。利用该判别方法对和东欢坨矿相近的钱家营矿5煤顶板含水层进行突水水源判别,判别结果与实际情况一致,判别准确率高,结果可靠,为矿井突水水源判别提供了科学理论依据。Aiming at the low accuracy of water source discrimination of mine water inrush, a water inrush identification model was established based on multivariate statistical analysis. Hydrochemical indexes(K^(+)+Na^(+)、Ca^(2+)、Mg^(2+)、SO_(4)^(2-)、Cl^(-)、and HCO_(3)) were selected as discriminant basis of mine water inrush source. Water quality analysis data of No.5 coal roof aquifer and No.12-2 floor aquifer of Donghuantuo Mine were used as training samples and test samples, including 35 training samples and 10 test samples. Results show that accuracy of discrimination on mine water inrush source is 86.7%,the discriminant result is significant and reliable. The method was used to discriminate mine water inrush source of No.5 coal roof aquifer in Qianjiaying Mine, which is close to Donghuantuo Mine. The discriminant result is consistent with actual situation, which can provide scientific theoretical basis for discriminant of mine water inrush source.

关 键 词：多元统计分析 矿井突水 水源识别 顶板含水层 底板含水层 

分 类 号：TD745.2[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]